By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) have agreed in principle for an alliance on the eve of Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha election 2024 in Andhra Pradesh. Both the BJP and the TDP are in urgent need to ally to protect their political interests at the national and state level respectively, and hence there is every possibility of their proposed alliance becoming a reality.
BJP hopes to win two seats by this arrangement in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election from the state, in addition to its expectation that TDP may prove to be an asset for achieving the NDA’s target to400+, in addition to finding an opening in the state election again. For TDP, it’s a question of re-establishing its political clout in the state again and overcome the political dominance of YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) led by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. Even though, one cannot say with certainty which party could gain how much since considerable size of BJP rank and file consider Chandrababu Naidu as a “traitor” for BJP, and very large number of TDP leaders and workers believe that BJP ultimately ditched them by not conceding their demand of giving special status to Andhra Pradesh leading their loss of power in 2019.
Actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan is playing a key role between the two, since his political outfit Jana Sena Party (JSP) is already an ally of BJP in NDA and an ally of TDP in Andhra Pradesh. In 2014 elections, BJP-TDP-JSP alliance won 103 Vidhan Sabha seats out of 175 in the state, after carving out Telangana from Andhra Pradesh as separate state. This bifurcation had also reduced the Parliamentary seats of Andhra Pradesh from 42 to 25, while 17 seats went with Telangana. Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu demanded special status for Andhra Pradesh which Modi government refused to grant, which led to split in NDA, and TDP parted ways from BJP in 2018. The political development thereafter has compelled TDP to seek re-alliance after six years. However, electoral outcome will depend much on how they go ahead and finalise seat sharing among themselves, both for Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections 2024.
YSRCP emerged as dominant force in both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections held in 2019. In Lok Sabha election YSRCP was able to win 22 seats out of 25. The ruling TDP in the State could win only 3 seats. YSRCP had gained 14 Lok Sabha seats compared to 2014, while TDP lost 12. In terms of vote share, YSRCP bagged 49.15 per cent of votes with a 20.25 per cent of swing in its favour. TDP suffered 11.49 per cent of swing against it, and could achieve a vote share of 39.59 per cent. JSP’s vote share was 7 per cent, while BJP could reach a vote share to only 0.96 per cent, after a swing of 7.54 per cent against it. BJP lost its 2 seats in 2019 that it had won in 2014 Lok Sabha election.
The result of the Lok Sabha election was a clear indication that both the BJP and TDP suffered great loss in terms of seats and vote share when the contested the election separately. Therefore, alliance between the two was imperative. The additional personal reason for Chandrababu Naidu is his recent arrest in corruption case, which he alleges was nothing but personal vendetta of the CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. TDP leader is therefore very keen to comeback to power again. JSP leader Pawan Kalyan also knows that his party has little support base, and he can’t hope for gain without an alliance.
It should be noted that BJP and YSRCP have also been in very friendly terms, and almost on all occasions, YSRCP supported Modi government. However, PM Modi needs to increase the number of seats of NDA, and such outside support naturally gets priority. As per the internal assessment of BJP, the party has no hope of gaining any Lok Sabha seat from the state by fighting solo, but if they contest in alliance with TDP, it could regain its two seats that it won in 2014. The reason for BJP’s hope is the growing anti-incumbency in the state against ruling YSRCP.
TDP also hopes to considerably regain its lost ground – fist on account of growing anti-incumbency against YSRCP regime, and secondly on account of alliance with the BJP and JSP. Only time will tell how much the TDP could gain in terms of Lok Sabha seats, but TDP hopes to increase its tally from 3 in 2019 to about 10 in 2024.
It would be novice to think that YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is not aware with the prospects of its potential loss in case of BJP-TDP-JSP alliance taking shape. Thus, BJP-TDP-JSP alliance may push him to rethink his political strategy to counter it effectively. YSRCP has been keeping equidistance from the INDIA bloc and NDA, but this development may force him to remain open for possible alliance with INDIA bloc. The bifurcation of Telangana has angered the Andhra people against the Congress, but in the fast-changing political scenario it seems reemerging.
It must be noted that JSP+ was an alliance during 2019 Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha election which included CPI(M), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and CPI. It was due to alliance that JSP was able to gain 7 per cent of vote share in Lok Sabha election. With JSP going with BJP, the par5y pushed its alliance partners away from it. Congress has also some pocket of influence and it has been gaining strength in the last 5 years. Therefore, there is a fair chance of political realignment even in the opposition INDIA bloc, and if it moves deftly, it can strike a deal or tactical arrangement with YSRCP.
As for Andhra Pradesh Vidhan Sabha elections are concerned, TDP’s stakes are very high since it could win only 23 seats out of 175, while YSRCP won 151 in 2019. It was a sharp decline of 79 seats for TDP and sharper gain of 84 seats for YSRCP compared to 2014 Vidhan Sabha election. YSRCP’s votes share was 49.95 per cent while TDP’s vote share was 39.17 per cent. JSP’s votes share was only 5.53 per cent even when the party gained for its alliance with CPI, CPI(M), and BSP. JSP had won only one seat. Therefore, it is very likely that JSP’s political worth is now being overestimated, though it may considerably gain by BJP-TDP-JSP alliance.
Congress is emerging in Andhra Pradesh, with its new leadership of YS Sharmila, who is a sister of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. Congress leaders vow to fight for Andhra’s Special Category Status, which BJP led Centre had denied so far. Special Category issue has emerged as key factor after Telangana was carved out of Andhra Pradesh in 2014. This is why people also don’t like TDP and JSP aligning with the BJP. In case, the political threat to YSRCP from BJP-TDP-JSP increases, INDIA bloc and YSRCP may come closer to offer one-on-one contest to BJP-TDP-JSP.
As regards INDIA bloc partners, the CPI and the CPI(M) have a few strongholds in Andhra Pradesh. The Congress has to forge an alliance with both the left parties and fight the BJP combination. The BJP combine has certainly emerged stronger in the state but the Congress-Left combination can also challenge the BJP-TDP-JSP alliance as also YSRCP in a large number of constituencies. A three cornered contest may come out with some surprising results. (IPA Service)
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