The landslide win of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in the national elections in Bangladesh held on February 12 is a positive development in the geopolitics of not only South Asia, but also augurs well for the bilateral relationship between India and its eastern neighbour. BNP getting more than two-thirds of the total 300 seats in the new parliament by defeating the main rival Jamaat-e-Islami, known for its fundamentalist stance, is a big relief for the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, as also the Narendra Modi-led government in India.
Latest reports indicate that out of the 299 seats where the elections were held, the BNP got 210, Jamaat-led alliance got 76 and the others bagged seven. For BNP, this has been the best ever performance in general elections held so far. Previously, in 2001 elections, the BNP formed the government after getting 193 seats, its highest tally until the 2026 elections broke its own record. Simultaneously, Jamaat has catapulted itself to the centre-stage of national politics by getting 76 seats in the polls. Its previous best performance was only 18 seats in 1991 elections.
There are major lessons from the February 12 elections which many have termed “historic’” since the July Revolution of 2024 which led to the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5, 2024. This was mainly engineered by students. The students body formed their party, National Citizens Party (NCP) and fought elections in alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami. There were only two major alliances. Of course, it must be recalled that the Awami Party, the erstwhile ruling party for most of the years since 1972, was banned from participating from the 2026 general elections.
Let us look at the major takeaways from the February 12 elections.
Firstly, the elections were held free and fair. The voting percentage crossed 60 per cent and the people voted with enthusiasm as if they were enjoying a festival. The EU observers were happy that the elections were held impartially. There were few clashes even though there was tense rivalry between the two contending groups during the poll campaign. Taking into account that the voters numbered at over 12 crores, a handful of inter-party clashes can be termed insignificant. So, it was a great achievement for the Yunus-led interim regime to hold the elections in a democratic environment.
Secondly, the BNP has been able to get the support of the people on the basis of its moderate approach and its emphasis on giving a stable government. The people were fed up with continuous turmoil which was affecting their livelihood. They were looking for a sane leader who would really care for the administration. Tarique Rahman, the current BNP supremo and the son of the late former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, has shown maturity so far. Despite thumping victory, he has appealed to his supporters not to hold any victory parade. This is a welcome move to avoid clashes with Jamaat supporters, who are talking of polling irregularities.
Thirdly, Jamaat has finally emerged as the second largest party in Bangladesh politics. Its present strength is now sufficient to challenge BNP in their parliament after it forms the government. Jamaat will expectedly take more anti-India stance as the opposition party to retain its base. This means that BNP leadership will be hamstrung in taking a very cordial position in dealing with India. Always, its negotiations with the Indian government will be under intense Jamaat scrutiny.
Fourthly, the Bangladesh politics raised big hopes after the July Revolution that a new Bangladesh with equity and dignity would emerge. Those hopes have shattered. The NCP, which contested 30 seats in alliance with Jamaat, has been rejected by the voters. The details are yet not available, but the trends are clear. The old style of Bangladesh politics is back, the only difference is that Awami League is not in the game at present. Bangladesh is back to two-party system, but it’s now BNP and Jamaat in the absence of the banned Awami League.
For India, Tarique Rahman as the Prime Minister is the best possible option to improve bilateral relations, which got derailed under the interim government of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, following the ouster of the Awami League government in August 2024. Indian policy makers made a lot of mistakes in dealing with Bangladesh in the last 18 months. The latest was the BCCI decision at the instance of the BJP to ask KKR to disallow the Bangladeshi cricketer Mustafizur Rahman to play in the IPL. Until then, anti-India sentiments were at a low ebb. The election campaign was on. This mistake could have been avoided by India. But, it was done aggravating the anti-India mood in Bangladesh, spanning all political parties.
This is the sort of myopic decision which ought to be avoided by India. The Modi government should start the process of healing in a much softer way. Tarique Rahman also has to move slowly and he will certainly take up the issue of Sheikh Hasina’s return to Dhaka from Indian soil. Jamaat will focus all its campaign on it to embarrass the new BNP prime minister.PM Modi has to find ways how to deal with this issue without giving up India’s old friend, former PM Sheikh Hasina. Modi has done a good job by being the first Prime Minister to congratulate Tarique Rahman on BNP’s smashing victory and expressing his wish to cooperate with his government to build a democratic inclusive Bangladesh. PM Modi now has to follow up his good wishes with concrete moves for assisting the new BNP government. (IPA Service)
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