By Dr. Gyan Pathak
AAP Convener and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s assertion in the December 19 INDIA Block Meet in Delhi about the need of either a Convener or PM face, and his impromptu support for TMC chief Mamata Banerjee’s proposal to make Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge’s name as Prime Minister face for the opposition alliance is significant, since it reflects the willingness of Kejriwal to go ahead with the alliance in right earnest.
The principle of states-specific seat-sharing alliance among INDIA Block constituent political parties has additionally paved the way for the proposed Congress-AAP alliance that has been undergoing teething trouble for the last few months especially in Delhi and Punjab, where their state leaderships have been expressing their inhibitions for any seat-sharing deal due to local politics. However, the situation has lately improved a little but both the party’s central leadership has to move ahead to seal the seat-sharing deal as soon as possible by overcoming all the hurdles in the way.
The importance of such a deal lies in the fact that BJP had won all 7 seats in Delhi in 2019 Lok Sabha election with 56.56 per cent of vote share, 2 in Punjab out of 13 Lok Sabha seats, and all the 26 seats in Gujarat with 62.21 per cent of votes. Though AAP had won only one seat in 2019 against 4 it had won in 2014, the political situation has greatly changed in the last five years after its impressive wins in Vidhan Sabha elections in Delhi and Punjab, and breaking into PM Modi’s forte in Gujarat. AAP is a ruling political party in Delhi and Punjab. Out of 70 seat in Delhi, AAP has 62 seats, and out of 117 seats in Punjab, the party has 92 seats. AAP had won 5 seats in Gujarat Vidhan Sabha election 2022.
As against BJP’s 56.86 per cent of votes, Congress’s vote share in Delhi in the Lok Sabha election 2019 was only 22.63 per cent and AAP’s 18.2 per cent. It is to be noted that there was 10.46 per cent of swing in favour of the BJP, chiefly on account of the wave in its favour created after the Pulwama attack. Since there is no such wave this time BJP’s share of votes is most likely to come down below 50 per cent. The recently concluded state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, where BJP had registered impressive gains in number of seats and formed its government, also shown that its share of votes are on the steep decline in the range of above 5-17 per cent. BJP’s falling share of votes suggests that it may also sharply fall in Delhi.
It is also noteworthy that even during the wave generated in favour of BJP after Pulwama attack in 2019, Congress’s share of votes in Delhi has a swing of 7.41 per cent in its favour. The state elections in the last 2 years show that Congress is resurgent everywhere, and there seems to be no reason as to why this will not happen in Delhi. Though AAP’s vote share had dwindled by 14.79 per cent in Delhi in 2019, its share in the Vidhan Sabha election 2020 had sharply increased to 53.57 per cent, only 0.73 per cent less than in 2015 Vidhan Sabha election. Congress vote share had substantially reduced to only 4.26 per cent. All these show that only a Congress-AAP alliance could defeat BJP in Delhi. Hence Congress-AAP alliance ind Delhi is crucial, and if it happens, the BJP may lose all the 7 seats it had won in 2019.
As for Punjab, Congress and AAP are the chief contestants. AAP had won one seat in 2019 with only 7.46 per cent of vote share. Congress was able to win 8 seats with vote share of 40.58 per cent. BJP had won only 2 seats, while Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) had won 2 seats having vote share of 9.74 and 27.76 per cent respectively. SAD has parted ways from BJP since 2020, which has already weakened both. Vidhan Sabha election 2022 in the state shows that SAD’s vote share declined to 18.38 per cent and BJP’s to 6.6 per cent. It is clear that Congress-AAP alliance may cost BJP and SAD all their seats. There are 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state, and reclaiming 4 from BJP and SAD will be crucial for INDIA alliance. AAP and Congress would be the chief contestants in Lok Sabha election in the state, and hence their gains or losses to each other may not impact the political fortune of INDIA block. However, the rift between them, if escalated may be advantage SAD or BJP.
In Gujarat, BJP had won all 26 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 with vote share of 63.08 per cent, while Congress’s vote share was 32.55 per cent. However, in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha election, BJP’s vote share declined to 52.50 per cent, which was a decline of 10.58 per cent. On the one hand it is a serious concern for the BJP in general and PM Modi in particular since they would be seeking for their third term in the Lok Sabha election 2024. During 2019-2022, Congress’s vote share in the state came down to 27.28 per cent, which was a decline of 5.27 per cent. As for AAP, the party won 5 seats with 12.92 per cent of votes, in their first contest in the state. The decline trend in the BJP’s vote share in Gujarat and elsewhere in November 2023 state elections does not seem to stop in the near future. Only a small swing of 2.5 per cent against BJP may bring down BJP’s vote share below 50 per cent in the state. BJP’s declining vote share in the state shows increasing anti-Modi anti-BJP sentiment in the state, which could further decline if Congress and AAP would field their joint candidates against the BJP’s. It should also be noted that BJP had won 156 seats in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha election in Gujarat out of 182. Congress had won 17, AAP 5, SP 1, and Independents 3. Therefore, it goes without saying that INDIA alliance in general and Congress-AAP alliance in particular may considerably impact BJP’s political fortune in the state. (IPA Service)
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