K Raveendran
While the Dubai real estate market is undoubtedly hot, experts are predicting a possible slowdown in 2024. This could lead to price moderation and selective buying are expected, although the scope for a significant market corrections is seen unlikely.
Dubai’s real estate market has been on a tear in recent years, fuelled by a surge in foreign investment, strong economic growth, and government reforms. However, whispers of a potential slowdown are starting to emerge, raising questions about the market’s sustainability.
Last year saw strong performance with record transactions. A record-breaking 118,993 residential transactions were carried out during the year, surpassing the previous year’s record by 29.6%.
Average residential prices increased by 20.1% in 2023, with apartments and villas witnessing similar growth while rents jumped by an impressive 34.7% in the last quarter of 2023 compared to the year before.
The surge in transaction volume and value reflects Dubai’s resilience and attractiveness to investors. Factors contributing to this robust growth include recovery in Dubai’s economy, infrastructure development, investment from international buyers who continue to invest in Dubai properties, drawn by tax incentives and lifestyle benefits.
Dubai’s transparent and efficient real estate regulations have also played a part as these enhance investor trust.
But the sector is expected to feel the headwinds of global Economic Uncertainty. Rising interest rates and a potential global recession could dampen investor sentiment.
Another problem is that of oversupply. An influx of new developments might outpace demand, putting pressure on prices. There are also affordability issues, with the rapid increase in prices pushing properties beyond the reach of many potential buyers.
According to Cushman & Wakefield Core, prices might moderate but not fall, supported by population growth and potential interest rate cuts. CBRE feels that while activity levels remain strong, some price moderation is expected in 2024. Deloitte has also predicted that market might witness a slowdown, although it is expected remain resilient due to its diverse economy and strong fundamentals.
Also published on Medium.
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