Indian foreign policy makers have at last showing some mature understanding of the geopolitics of the post-Trump.2 months if the external affairs minister Dr. S Jaishankar’s observations at the concluding session of Kautilya Economic Conclave in New Delhi on Sunday, are any indication. The minister was quite candid in explaining the complexity of India’s tasks in relations management with big powers like USA, China and Russia and what is the best option for India in meeting that big challenge keeping its national interests in mind.
This approach is completely different from the earlier Narendra Modi approach to foreign policy in his first decade of rule and dictating the diplomacy through PMO overruling the views of the foreign service officers of the South Block. If the latest gossips in the national capital are to be believed, the foreign office is now getting more leeway in formulating the diplomatic strategy after Prime Minister Narendra Modi facing a disaster in his relationship with the US President Donald Trump in the last six months since April 1 this year.
This is a positive development if this continues and does not suddenly get a jolt again through some sudden shift by the Prime Minister due to some back channel understanding with the US again. The seasoned diplomats including the former foreign secretaries many of whom are close to the ruling dispensation, are airing their respective views. The general agreement is that Trump has crossed all lines of diplomatic decency, he has politicalized the issue of trade and tariffs.
India has to fight Trump policies with dignity and certainly not just surrender its interests which the Trump officials want. In fact, there is a view in the White House that this war of attrition should go on, India cannot hold on for long, PM Modi will finally agree. Reports say that Trump is also sharing this view at the moment. Though there has been some sweet talks by Trump relating to the PM Modi, in the recent days, but in trade talks, the US officials are sticking to their demand of getting bigger access to India’s agri, fishing and dairy sectors.
Herein comes the importance of what Dr. Jaishankar observed in his detailed elaboration on Sunday. He said that India has been in talks with the U.S. for” a trade understanding where our bottom lines and red lines are respected”. If the Indian negotiators stick to this guideline during the current India-US trade negotiations, the US side will be exhausted as they will see that their saber-rattling on trade terms has not paid dividends, they will then have to rethink of some dilution in their stand. The talks may prolong but if India comes out unscathed, that will set the beginning of a new sort of India-US trade relationship at equal level.
Former foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale in a recent piece has made a very objective assessment of the latest Trump policy on India. His view is that India should give up the thought that India and US are natural partners-India should deal with USA as a big country with which it will have talks on economy and tech development for leverage. He is absolutely right. It is useless for India to talk of any country as strategic partner at the current period when sweeping changes are taking place in the interrelationship among nations. The political relations become highly flexible, only economic relations stand out.
The US has to remain as a partner country as India has a big stake in its relationship with the USA due to possibilities of high tech inflow along with investment apart from the presence of huge Indian techies in the US job market. But simultaneously, India also has the advantage of having the biggest market globally for the US companies many of which are already well settled in India. India’s defence industry requirements are also massive. No country, whether it is USA or China, can ignore the India’s burgeoning market.
That is why India can deal with the big countries with ease without showing any knee jerk reaction. For instance, PM Narendra Modi avoided talking to Trump in August, joined the SCO meet in China and had good discussions with the Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit on August 31. He had talks with President Putin also. President Putin is expected to visit India as part of the annual bilateral summit on December 5 and 6 this year. So PM Modi has the opportunity to impart a new dynamism in India’s bilateral relations with Russia in the context of the present tariff war with the USA.
At the other end, India and China are taking measures to improve their relations in a number of areas including the resumption of direct flights after a gap of five years. The development is positive for India-China bilateral relations but this should have been done by India much before. It should not be considered as a part of knee jerk reaction after getting rebuff from Trump.
Just as India should not consider USA as a natural or strategic partner, China also can not be considered as a natural or strategic partner. Right now, China is making all efforts to occupy the space vacated by Trump due to his unilateralism and opposition to globalization. China is now in its diplomatic best in talking sweet to the countries hit by Trump’s policies. China seeks to be the leader of globalization with a human face. China has its own national interests. Sometimes, those interests will align with India, sometimes not. So India can only move selectively taking into account its specific interests.
India with its fourth largest economy has enough bargaining power to have relations with all the three major countries USA, China and Russia taking into account India’s national interests. India can make use of this global turmoil to emerge as the true leader of Global South by aligning its interests with that of the developing countries.
In this context Dr. Jaishankar made a significant comment at Sunday’s conclave. “While regions in the world including the US, Russia and China are actually defending their interests, India aims to go beyond that’. It is to be seen how that “going beyond that” is implemented by the rejuvenated external affairs ministry at ground level. (IPA Service)
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