Goldman Sachs Lowers US Recession Odds Amid Strong Sales and Job Data

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has revised down the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next year to 20%, a drop from the previous estimate of 25%. This adjustment follows the release of robust retail sales and jobless claims data, which indicate a resilient economy. The July retail sales figures saw the most significant increase since early 2023, and unemployment claims were at their lowest since early July. Goldman economists are also gaining confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.