Nolo was a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph early Saturday, positioned roughly 155 miles south of South Point and moving north at only a few miles per hour. Forecasters expected the hurricane to turn westward while remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, but its slow movement raised the danger of prolonged rainfall.
The National Weather Service warned that catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding was possible on the Big Island, particularly across steep terrain where intense rainfall could trigger landslides, overflowing streams and rapid rises in normally dry channels. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning remained in effect for Hawaii County as Nolo’s outer rain bands reached the island.
Rainfall posed the greatest immediate threat. Forecasts indicated widespread totals of 15 to 20 inches across parts of the Big Island, with isolated amounts potentially reaching 35 inches. Maui was also facing heavy rainfall, with several inches expected and substantially higher totals possible in favoured mountain locations.
Authorities urged residents to avoid unnecessary travel, monitor emergency alerts and prepare for rapidly changing conditions. People in flood-prone areas were advised to be ready to move to safer ground and not attempt to cross flooded roads, where water depth and currents can be difficult to judge.
Emergency officials were particularly concerned about communities near streams, low-lying roads and steep slopes. Saturated ground could increase the likelihood of rockfalls, mudslides and fallen trees, while flooding could isolate communities if roads became impassable.
Hawaii’s Department of Transportation discouraged non-essential travel along the Hana Highway in East Maui, saying the narrow route was vulnerable to flooding, fallen trees and rocks as Nolo passed south of the island chain. East Maui could receive four to six inches of rain, with isolated totals around 10 inches.
Dangerous ocean conditions were expected alongside the rainfall. Large swells generated by Nolo were forecast to produce hazardous surf along exposed shores, with high-surf advisories covering east and southeast-facing coasts of Hawaii Island, Maui and Molokai, as well as east-facing shores of Oahu and Kauai.
Forecasters cautioned that individual waves could be substantially higher than average significant wave heights, creating risks for swimmers, surfers, boaters and people near exposed coastlines. Strong currents and waves breaking across coastal roads or low-lying areas could compound difficulties caused by heavy rainfall.
Nolo’s slow pace remained an important element of the forecast because tropical systems moving gradually near mountainous islands can deliver repeated bands of moisture over the same locations. Hawaii’s terrain can intensify rainfall as moisture-laden winds rise over volcanic slopes, producing sharp differences in totals over short distances.
The Weather Prediction Center said the threat of heavy rain and flooding was greatest across the Big Island and Maui, while other islands faced lower rainfall totals and the possibility of isolated flooding. It said uncertainty over Nolo’s precise track remained because of interactions between atmospheric systems surrounding the cyclone.
Nolo strengthened into a hurricane on Thursday as reconnaissance aircraft detected a more organised circulation and hurricane-force winds. It intensified further on Friday, reaching Category 2 strength while moving slowly north-northeast towards waters south of the Big Island.
Forecast guidance indicated additional strengthening was possible as Nolo remained over warm Pacific waters, with the cyclone potentially becoming a major hurricane. Even without a direct landfall, officials stressed that the storm’s broad moisture field meant dangerous conditions could extend far from its centre.
Strong and gusty winds were possible across the island chain through the weekend, with tropical-storm-force conditions posing risks to trees, power lines and exposed infrastructure in areas closest to the hurricane.
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