The last time Karnataka went to the polls in 2018, the keenly-fought election had given a fractured mandate, with BJP winning 104 seats in a 224-member Assembly. However, the BJP could not get the magic number of 113 and remained out of power despite all the manoeuvring it claimed it did not indulge in. But that was only a strategy that would unfold a year later. In the 2019 general elections, the BJP won 25 out of 28 parliamentary seats. Within days, the Congress-JD(S) government began to feel the tremors, and soon, 17 legislators from the two parties resigned. The much-publicized drama put the BJP in power.
When it’s going to Assembly polls on May 10 this time, the question is whether the saffron party will retain the state. On May 6, the 72-year BJP war horse, the country’s much-loved Prime Minister Narendra Modi, participated in a 36-km long roadshow in Bengaluru, the summer capital of Karnataka and internationally-recognized IT and startup hub. Modi’s roadshows are the events when ordinary people come out of their homes and queue up for a glimpse of the prime minister, who is surrounded by suited elite bodyguards. Ironic these roadshows are a permanent fixture in election campaigns these days. For those who know where these ordinary people come from and their aspirations, it’s a given that they are only there for some good fun. Watching the security commandoes protecting the PM while he is trying to connect and make an outreach is fun and dramatic to watch in today’s time of social media where they can share visuals.
Exit polls say there will be a close contest between the BJP and the Congress. Karnataka is the only South Indian state where two national parties hold the fort while the regional party – JD(S) — is in the third spot. South Indian states have long been able to keep national parties at bay on anti-Hindi and anti-North Indian hegemony planks. Over the decades, these states also have pulled a large population out of poverty and provided better health, education, and business infrastructure. In a way, they have kept national parties away and proved that regional parties can do better. The BJP, with pan-national ambitions, would fight this notion, and in this fight, Karnataka seems to be their gateway to the South Indian states.
The BJP victory in Karnataka, although not crucial for the PM’s political career, is quite an asset in the BJP’s arsenal. But that’s not why BJP must win Karnataka. After fixing the Ram Temple issue, abrogating Article 370 in J&K, and having its governments in most North-Eastern states where the party thought Christian missionaries were making deep inroads, the Hindutva brigade is fast running out of issues.
There is one more aspect to it. India is confronted with a belligerent China in Ladakh and N-E borders. BJP’s politics of ultra-nationalism leaves it with little choice but to face China point-blank. But, can a BJP government stand up to China unless it has the support of political leaders in South Indian states? Rahul Gandhi has been raising the China issue occasionally, asserting that the BJP government has been weak in its response to security challenges posed by its neighbour in the east.
India’s current economic uptick and security challenges demand that the country’s political leadership remains in stable hands. However, it’s not impossible unless the government has the backing of who rules in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka. Right now, it’s only Karnataka where the saffron party has a chance. Therefore, BJP has a good deal of fortune at stake in Karnataka.
Returning to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and roadshows, one thing is increasingly becoming evident. The Prime Minister is showing signs of fatigue. His speeches, at least during his Karnataka election campaigns, sound laboured and devoid of the spirit that connects him with the masses. The party needs to think about it, and the BJP juggernaut needs to find and prop up more people from their ranks with their balance of patrician and professional commitments right.
In other words, if BJP has a plan and ambition beyond Bengaluru, it must have more authentic orators and capable administrators in its front ranks. Using turncoats will not work in South India. It has a deeper and stronger craving for regional political identity, nourished by M Karunanidhi and others. Only original thoughts can change this.
The BJP in the last leg of campaigning is getting all the help from the Prime Minister, though that has shown how the state leadership lacks in fielding leaders who have appeal to all communities. Both the PM and other leaders have been campaigning on communal lines with the hope of the majority community consolidation as against the Muslims. RSS cadres are working overtime to save the only government of theirs in South. Despite all factional fights, the BJP’s election machine is robust and oiled with massive financial resources. It will be of interest to see how the Congress meets the multi- pronged challenge on the basis of its secular programme and focus on anti-incumbency. (IPA Service)
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