By Dr. Gyan Pathak
As Lok Sabha election campaigns nearing to its close in Tamil Nadu, INDIA bloc allies seem to have established their political dominance in all the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state. NDA is trailing far behind in all seats and therefore likely to not winning any of them. Elections to all the 39 seats are scheduled in the first phase of election on April 19. Three political alliances are in the electoral battlefield – INDIA bloc, AIADMK led alliance, and NDA.
INDIA bloc is comprised of the ruling DMK of Tamil Nadu led by M K Stalin, KMDK, INC, CPI, CPI(M), VCK, IUML, and MDMK. In 2019, all these parties were part of DMK led front. IJK was also part of it , but it has left this time and joined hands with BJP and is part of NDA. However, IJK’s joining hands with BJP does not seem to have any significant impact on INDIA bock’s political prospect. DMK led front had won 38 seats in the state in 2019 election, but INDIA bloc is set to increase its tally by winning all the 39 seats in Lok Sabha election 2024.
DMK is contesting in 21 seats while KMDK is contesting one seat on DMK’s symbol. INC is contesting on 9 seats, CPI on 2, CPI(M)on 2, VCK on 2, IUML on one, and MDMK on 1 seat. These parties have upper hand in all the seats where their candidates are contesting.
AIADMK-led alliance had won one seat in 2019 Lok Sabha election, and it was won by AIADMK. Since AIADMK has parted ways from the BJP , NDA is sure to lose this seat this time. AIADMK alliance now consists of AIADMK, PT, SDPI, and DMDK. This alliance has weakened considerably, because four of its allies have deserted it. PMK, BJP, PNK, and TMC (M) are not part of this alliance. SDPI is the only party that has joined hands with this alliance this time.
In the last election in 2019, AMMK-SDPI front had contested but could not win any of the seats. In 2024 election this front has just disintegrated, and SDPI joined hands with AIADMK, while AMMK joined NDA.
BJP has been able to form NDA alliance of eight political parties and one Independent in Tamil Nadu. NDA in the state is comprised of BJP, IJK, IMKMK, PNK, TMMK, PMK, TMC (M), AMMK, and one independent candidate. The parties coming from AIADMK alliance to NDA are adding only a little benefit to the NDA, since they have little support base in the state.
BJP is contesting on 19 seats, while IJK, IMKMK, PNK, and TMMK on one seat each on BJP’s symbol. Thus altogether 23 candidates are contesting on BJP’s symbol. PMK is contesting on 10 seats, TMC(M) on 3, AMMK on 2 and an independent on one seat.
The other political parties in the fray are NTK and BSP, which are not part of any of the three political alliances. These parties are contesting on all seats.
Among the key constituencies is Coimbatore, where former Karnataka cadre IPS officer K Annamalai of the BJP is pitted against DMK’s Ganapathi P Rajkumar. This seat is known as communally sensitive. Other important contestants on this seat are Singai G Ramachandran of AIADMK and Kalamani Jagannathan of NTK. The outcome on this seat will have a bearing on the future course of politics in the state, since BJP has put great hope on this constituency.
The national and state politics are now losing their independent identities in this constituency. Though BJP is aggressively campaigning on national security, Hindutva, corruption, and nepotism issues, its candidate is being branded by all other political parties as outsider. There is considerable north India population there and BJP believes that they are supporters of PM Narendra Modi.
Among the national parties, both the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and PM Narendra Modi have addressed multiple rallies in the state. The DMK led alliance have won 38 seats and bagged 53.15 per cent of votes in 2019 Lok Sabha election. DMK had won 24, INC 8, CPI 2, CPI(M) 2, VCK 1 and IUML 1 seat. DMK’s share of votes was 33.52 per cent and INC’s 12.72 per cent.
The then NDA had won 1 seat and garnered 30.57 per cent of votes. The present NDA does not have AIADMK with it, and hence it could not have the benefit of AIADMK’s support base. AIADMK’s vote share in 2019 was 19.39 per cent while BJP’s vote share was just 2.16 per cent. As things stands on the ground level when election campaigns are nearing to a close, ruling DMK seems to increase its tally from 20 to 21, and INC from 8 to 9 seats.
The latest ABP-CVoter survey has predicted that INDIA bloc is set to sweep the polls in Tamil Nadu by winning all the 39 seats, though few surveys have earlier predicted that the BJP, AIADMK, and others may win couple of seats. PM Narendra Modi’s “Mission 50”, that is winning 50 seats from the South India is likely to fail, if the party fails in winning even a single seat from Tamil Nadu. (IPA Service)
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