The anticipated docking of a Chinese scientific vessel in the Maldives this week has heightened tensions among Beijing, Delhi, and Malé. The ship Xiang Yang Hong 3 is officially visiting the Maldives to change its crew and stock up on supplies, which is a completely harmless visit says Beijing.
In Delhi, however, the ship’s visit is viewed differently. At the very least, it’s considered disrespect to India. At its worst, there’s concern that the ship might be gathering information that could later help the Chinese military with submarine activities. However, experts on China have dismissed these worries.
“The Chinese vessels conduct scientific research in the Indian Ocean. Their operations in international waters are completely lawful,” Zhou Bo, a retired Senior Colonel from the People’s Liberation Army, informed the BBC.
“Occasionally, these ships require restocking of essentials such as fuel, food, and water. Thus, docking at a port in another country is a standard procedure. Therefore, the Indian government should not create unnecessary trouble over it. The Indian Ocean does not belong to India,” stated Mr. Zhou, currently affiliated with Tsinghua University in Beijing.
However, this isn’t the first instance of China, which vies with Delhi for sway in the Indian Ocean amidst a prolonged disagreement over their border in the Himalayas, dispatching one of its vessels near Indian territorial waters.
In 2014, two Chinese naval submarines stopped at Colombo, and over the last two years, two Chinese research ships have made visits to Sri Lanka, near the southernmost point of India, actions that have significantly irked India. These visits occurred while China, having lent billions of dollars to Colombo, made major advances in its relationship with Sri Lanka.
The research vessel, Xiang Yang Hong 3, had initially intended to stop in Colombo for supplies before heading to the Maldives. However, that plan has been put on hold for the moment, as stated by Tharaka Balasuriya, the junior foreign minister of Sri Lanka.”Over this year, we aim to enhance our technology and skills to equally participate in these research endeavours,” he informed the BBC.
Nonetheless, Colombo’s move to halt the visits of research ships is viewed as a reaction to India’s firm opposition to the presence of Chinese vessels. India’s objections, however, haven’t significantly influenced the situation in the Maldives. The nation, made up of about 1,200 coral islands and atolls in the heart of the Indian Ocean, has historically been within India’s sphere of influence. Yet, Mohamed Muizzu, who assumed the presidency in November and is viewed as pro-China, aims to shift this balance.
His campaign was built on the ‘India Out’ slogan, demanding that Delhi remove approximately 80 Indian military members stationed on the island. India maintains that these forces are in the country to service and manage three reconnaissance and rescue planes that Delhi donated several years back.
The government of the Maldives has given Delhi a deadline to pull out its soldiers by March 15, just two days prior to the nation’s parliamentary elections. After discussions in Delhi the previous week, the foreign ministry of the Maldives announced that India had consented to “substitute the military staff,” with the initial group set to depart by March 10 and the remaining by the second week of May.
In December, the administration under Mr. Muizzu also declared its decision not to extend a hydrographic survey contract with India, which the prior government had agreed to for charting the seabed within Maldivian territorial waters.
In fact, relations have soured to such an extent that no senior leaders from the Maldivian government were present at a recent celebration hosted by the Indian High Commission in Malé for India’s 75th Republic Day.
In a twist to regional geopolitics , China warmly welcomed Mr. Muizzu during his five-day official visit to Beijing last month. Following his visit, several high-ranking Chinese officials have made trips to the Maldives. Mr. Muizzu has also unveiled a number of infrastructure projects in the Maldives funded by China.
The abrupt change in Malé’s stance towards China has sparked worries in Delhi, which considers the island nation to be of strategic importance. Given its rapidly growing naval capabilities, China would likely seek access to such a strategically vital location, a development India aims to prevent.
“The Maldives is definitely important; it’s like India’s southern ocean side,” explained Shyam Saran, who previously served as India’s foreign secretary, in a conversation with the media house. “Just like we were really worried about what was going on in Sri Lanka, we’ll be really worried about what might happen in the Maldives,” said Mr. Saran.
But it’s not only Delhi that’s concerned about the ties with Malé. The opposition party in the Maldives, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), and others are pushing for Mr. Muizzu’s government to change direction. They argue that making a big neighbour like India upset is not good for the country. Last week, the MDP mentioned they were even thinking about starting the process to impeach Mr. Muizzu.
Being a small island country, the Maldives relies heavily on India for the majority of its food supply, construction of infrastructure, and progress in technology. Additionally, numerous Maldivians travel to India for medical care.
“Many people here believe that the government has pushed its antagonism towards India too far and that it’s completely unwarranted,” said Aik Ahmed Easa, a lawyer in Malé associated with the opposition MDP, in a statement to the Media House. “The Maldives is a tiny nation, but the situation is turning risky as we find ourselves caught in the competition between major Asian powers,” he stated in simpler terms.
According to experts, China has expansive strategic goals and is expected to deploy additional naval vessels to the Indian Ocean region for purposes such as oceanographic research or safeguarding its economic interests. For India, the task at hand is how to effectively counter China’s increasing assertiveness in a region that Delhi regards as its own territory.
According to Mr. Zhou, Chinese aircraft carriers and their accompanying ships are likely to eventually reach the Indian Ocean. If India obstructs the resupply of these vessels in a third nation, such as Sri Lanka, it would greatly anger Beijing, he explains. (IPA Service)
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru.)
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