A court’s decision to remove opposition leader Tidjane Thiam from the electoral roll has intensified political tensions in Ivory Coast, raising concerns about the potential for unrest ahead of the October 2025 presidential election. Thiam, a former Credit Suisse CEO and current head of the Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire , was disqualified due to his French nationality at the time of registration, despite renouncing it in February. He condemned the ruling as arbitrary and vowed to continue his campaign, warning that such actions could destabilize the country.
The disqualification has drawn criticism from various quarters, including the Catholic bishops of Ivory Coast, who have called for transparent and inclusive elections to prevent a recurrence of the violence that marred previous polls. The 2010 election dispute between then-President Laurent Gbagbo and challenger Alassane Ouattara led to a civil war that claimed over 3,000 lives. Gbagbo’s refusal to concede defeat and the subsequent power struggle highlighted the fragility of the nation’s democratic institutions.
The upcoming election is further complicated by uncertainties surrounding President Ouattara’s intentions. Having controversially secured a third term in 2020 following the death of his designated successor, Ouattara has yet to announce whether he will seek a fourth term. His potential candidacy could exacerbate existing tensions and undermine efforts to foster national reconciliation.
Adding to the complexity is the candidacy of Laurent Gbagbo, who has been nominated by the African Peoples’ Party – Côte d’Ivoire . Despite his acquittal by the International Criminal Court in 2019, Gbagbo’s eligibility remains in question due to a domestic court conviction. His return to the political arena has reignited divisions, with some viewing him as a symbol of resistance, while others see his involvement as a potential trigger for renewed conflict.
Foreign influence is also a growing concern. Analysts have noted Russia’s increasing engagement in West Africa, including support for Gbagbo’s PPA-CI party. This involvement raises questions about the extent to which external actors may seek to sway the election’s outcome, potentially undermining the sovereignty of the electoral process.
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