With the final list of eligible candidates announced on January 21 just three weeks before the crucial elections on February 12 in Bangladesh, the campaign has started in full swing. The trends so far give all the elements of a total polarization between the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami each heading an alliance of a number of small political parties which on its own strength would not make any impact in the polls.
Awami League has been kept out of the electoral battle by the Election Commission. That way, BNP is the only other political party which has adequate experience in governance acting as the ruling party a number of times. Tarique Rahman, BNP chairman and son of former Prime Minister Begum Zia who passed away last month is making use of this governance and stability issue in his election meetings being attended by thousands in towns and districts. He is talking of stability which he claims only the BNP is in a position to ensure. The people are listening to him as he is cheered all along his route and given the reception by the party workers like the future Prime Minister of the country.
BNP is heading a ten party alliance contesting 272 constituencies out of the total of 300 leaving 28 seats to its small alliance partners. Other parties are so weak in strength that the BNP has to depend on its own strength to aspire for a majority in the Bangladesh Sansad by getting 151. BNP is making all efforts to get a majority on its own, but its leadership has kept the option open for having a coalition if it fails to get a majority.
As against this BNP led alliance, the Jamaat-e-Islami led eleven party alliance has broadened its coalition by roping in Jatiya Party which has some strength in a few districts. Jamaat on its own is contesting in 226 seats giving 74 seats to its allies, the major of which is the NCP, the party of the students movement, NCP, is contesting in 30 seats.NCP promises the building a New Bangladesh on the basis of its pro-people charter. Hopes were raised in the 2026 elections NCP would offer a platform for the forward looking forces, but those hopes were belied as factionalism and strong anti-Indian stance divided the party and vertically split the leadership. The students body of NCP faced a disaster when the elections to the students unions of all universities took place. Jamaat students body swept the polls and the BNP came distant second.
This was a big tragedy for the students movement in Bangladesh which always led the change and spearheaded all the revolutions in the country, starting with the movement for an Independent Bangladesh beginning 1971. Jamaat was always seen as a fanatic group by the majority of the Bangladesh students. Jamaat never got more than eight per cent in any elections in Bangladesh. But in the recent opinion polls, while the BNP was seen to have got 34 per cent votes, Jamaat got 29 per cent – very, very close. In the recent days, Jamaat has expanded its alliance base and it hopes to benefit from that expansion.
Jamaat has the support of the lower strata of the Bangladeshi Muslims who are vulnerable to hardcore religious propaganda. That way, Jamaat has got extensive mass base and it has funds of the west Asian countries. That way Jamaat has got high financial and organizational muscle power. Its anti-Indian rant has also helped in mobilizing the masses. Jamaat is campaigning that BNP is in cahoots with India and like Awami League, Bangladesh will be turned into a colony of India. NCP also is helping Jamaat as a part of the alliance in pursuing this anti-BNP and anti-Bangladesh agenda.
This campaign has made BNP supremo Tarique Rahman’s campaign stance more difficult. He has to compete with Jamaat in India-bashing for getting votes, though he told his close colleagues, Bangladesh cannot grow by keeping perpetual tensions with India. He will take steps to ease that. The BNP is also worried that the chief adviser Dr. Yunus is not well disposed to BNP, he might help some of his chosen Jamaat and NCP candidates.
In the coming days, the election battle will become more bitter. Soon it might turn into a battle of equals. All big foreign powers are taking keen interest in the outcome of the elections. China has established maximum contacts with the leaderships of BNP, Jamaat and NCP. The US officials after a gap, are hobnobbing with the BNP leaders. Indian High Commissioner Pranay Sharma had a meeting with Tarique Rahman recently. The Indian foreign office and the High Commission is paying the price due to the Modi government’s using the BCCI as the instrument of BJP policy.
The directive by the BCCI to KKR not to allow the Bangladesh player Mustafizur Rahman in IPL has immensely damaged the India-Bangladesh relations. This has become one of the campaign plank of Jamaat. New Delhi knew that the elections were in February and this issue was sensitive and it could have been avoided. But the centre forced the situation. The High Commission in Dhaka is bearing the brunt for the folly of the two big leaders. Indian foreign ministry has to pay for it even after the new government is formed in Bangladesh. (IPA Service)
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