The results of the local polls in Kerala covering corporations, municipalities as also gram panchayats declared on Saturday December 13 are a firm indication of the massive erosion of the support base of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) headed by the CPI(M) in both rural and urban areas signalling all the possibility of a thumping majority by the winner United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress in the 2026 assembly polls due in March/April 2026.
The results underline the supremacy of the main opposition UDF throughout the state as also further breakthrough by the BJP led NDA in capturing new support base in the urban areas. For the LDF, especially its leader CPI(M), the results should act as a wakeup call. Still, three months are left, the LDF has to carry out deep introspection into the factors leading to the defeat of their candidates in their strongholds for taking corrective measures to salvage the situation before the assembly poll.
In Kerala politics, there have been instances when after a massive defeat, the LDF has bounced back. For example, in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the UDF got 19 seats and the LDF only one out of the total of 20 seats, but in 2021 assembly elections, the LDF bounced back to power for the second consecutive time with larger number of seats. In 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the same results were repeated with the UDF getting 19 seats, but in 2026 elections, it will be a Herculean task for the LDF to repeat a scenario like 2021 assembly polls.
The results so far reveal a disastrous position of the LDF compared to the 2020 polls. Figures show that out of the 6 corporations, the UDF got 4, LDF one and NDA the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. As regards municipalities, out of 87, UDF got 54, LDF 28 and NDA 2. Regarding gram panchayats, out of 941 seats, UDF got 494, LDF 348, NDA 25 and others 8. Only in district panchayats, out of 14, the UDF and the LDF had equal share with 7 seats each. The key takeaways are – the UDF has made major gains across all tiers, there has been a big surge of UDF in gram panchayats level compared to 2020 polls. This should be most worrying to the CPI(M) and the CPI because the LDF is hoping to retain its power on the basis of rural support. As regards the BJP, there has been a 50 per cent rise in gram panchayats. This should worry both LDF and UDF in the coming assembly polls.
An analysis of voting in gram panchayats shows that the UDF vote share has gone up by 4.9 per cent in 2025 polls as against 2020 polls while the LDF loss has been to the extent of 10.9 per cent. The BJP led NDA has shown a positive swing of 2.2 per cent. This 10.9 per cent loss in votes compared to the 2020 polls must be analysed candidly by the LDF leadership. The loss in urban areas was expected but this could have been made up by the LDF through retaining the base in the rural areas, but that has collapsed. This needs thorough appraisal. The damage management has to be done on a priority basis.
The district panchayats have always been under full domination of the LDF. But in the latest polls, the trends are there for a reversal of the process in favour of the UDF. In district panchayats, there has been a swing of 12.3 per cent in favour of UDF as against LDF’s loss of 8 per cent. This is not just the outcome of anti incumbency mood of the rural people, it has something to do with some structural change in the minds of the villagers. The LDF must be failing to meet the aspirations of the rural people of Kerala in the digital age of the 21st century.
Kerala is a high literate state with total digital literacy. The LDF has taken some pro-people measures which have been appreciated by the people. Still the fatigue of the rural electorate with the Left requires thorough political scrutiny. As of now, Kerala is the only state having a Left led government. If the LDF loses in Kerala in 2026 assembly polls, that will mean there will be no state government in the country after May 2026. West Bengal which the CPI(M) ruled for 34 years is already lost. In the present Bengal assembly, the CPI(M) has no member.. In Tripura assembly, CPI(M) has got members but the organization is not yet sufficiently equipped to get back power.
For that reason, it is of paramount importance for the leadership of the LDF, especially the CPI(M) and the CPI to start immediate corrective measures after proper assessment of the performance of the LDF candidates. This is the moment of truth for the two communist parties in Kerala, this is also the moment for the Indian Left as a whole to keep the Left flying in at least one state in the country as the ruling party. (IPA Service)
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