Maldives FX Reserves Bolstered by ₹33,000 Crore Swap from RBI

Malé’s foreign exchange reserves have surged by more than $400 million, marking a notable strengthening of the nation’s external liquidity following a currency swap arrangement with the Reserve Bank of India. The Maldives Monetary Authority drew down the entire $400 million facility in October 2024, with the impact reflecting sharply in the country’s gross reserves, which rose to approximately $856 million by April 2025 from a low of $371 million earlier in the year.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Maldives’ Long‑Term Foreign‑Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘CC’, citing the infusion from the RBI swap as a key factor in easing the country’s liquidity pressures. The agency also credited sustained tourism receipts and the implementation of the Foreign Currency Act, which compels tourism‑related businesses to convert a mandated portion of their monthly foreign‑currency revenues, for boosting reserves.

Despite the uplift in reserves, Fitch emphasised that gross holdings now cover just 1.5 months of external payments—well below the three‑and‑a‑half‑month median for comparable peers. Net reserves, after subtracting short‑term liabilities, remain critically thin at around $28 million. In its rating statement dated 12 June 2025, Fitch maintained the view that a sovereign default “remains a likely scenario within the foreseeable future” absent significant further support or reform.

The agency highlighted looming debt repayments of $688 million in the second half of 2025, rising to $1.1 billion in 2026, including bonds and sukuk. Policymakers in Malé are negotiating with external partners—including India, China, multilateral lenders and possibly the IMF—to secure deferments, fresh currency‑swap lines, or restructuring deals. Notwithstanding the swap, Fitch reiterated its concerns over persistent fiscal imbalance: the fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 14.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, public debt is set to reach 125 per cent of GDP by 2026, and important reforms—particularly in subsidy and healthcare spending—have been delayed on political grounds.

India formally welcomed the strengthening of Maldivian reserves, with the Indian High Commission in Malé posting on X that it “noted with satisfaction” the impact of the $400 million swap in easing external liquidity pressures. The move is part of broader bilateral economic cooperation anchored within the SAARC framework, signalling a continued role for India in supporting economic stability in Maldives.

Tourism continues to underpin the archipelago’s economy, with record visitor numbers bolstering inflows. Policymakers hope that the expansion of resort capacity and full operation of the new terminal at Velana International Airport will sustain growth and further cushion foreign currency earnings. Fitch projects GDP growth of around 4.8 per cent in 2025, increasing to 6.0 per cent in 2026 as tourism infrastructure develops.

The Foreign Currency Act, introduced last year as a fiscal measure, requires tourism businesses to sell at least 20 per cent of their monthly foreign exchange earnings to licensed banks. Separately, the MMA raised mandatory bank conversion thresholds from 60 per cent to 90 per cent, measures aimed at shoring up foreign‑exchange liquidity.

While the currency swap has delivered a temporary liquidity bridge, analysts caution that it falls short of addressing structural weaknesses. The MMA and government officials have underscored intentions to pursue fiscal consolidation and attract medium‑term financing. But Fitch has warned that absent sustained reserve accumulation, clear evidence of reform, and stronger fiscal discipline, the Maldives remains vulnerable to credit deterioration or a potential sovereign default.

India’s willingness to extend financial assistance underscores geopolitical and strategic interests. The inclusion of swap facilities, alongside ongoing debt negotiations with China and potential IMF engagement, may provide short‑term relief, but Maldives must improve its debt servicing capacity and rebuild buffers to avert future policy shocks.