As we approach the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the ruling NDA and the combined opposition prepare for the fierce battle ahead. The opposition is holding strategy meetings in Bengaluru its second, on July 18, while the NDA is meeting in Delhi on the same day to showcase its strength.
The opposition front has expanded, with eight more parties joining the second unity meeting on Tuesday The Opposition is enthused after its successful first meeting in Patna last month in which 16 parties participated. The Bengaluru meeting is meant to take it forward. Its decisions arrived at the first meeting on June 23. The NDA, too, is seeking more allies and retaining the present flock.
Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge had invited 24 allies, including eight new entrants. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, the Revolutionary Socialist Party, the Forward Bloc, the Indian Union Muslim League, the Kerala Congress-Joseph and the Kerala Congress-Mani will join the second opposition meeting. MDMK and KDMK were BJP allies earlier.
The Congress Parliamentary Party’s leader Sonia Gandhi will attend the meeting. Though she has taken a back seat, for the first time, she will participate in Bengaluru.
The main objective of the opposition front is to promote positive partnerships. At Patna, the front held firm to an unwavering mindset of “hum saath saath hai,” which means that we stand together. This motto encapsulates the opposition’s unwavering confidence in working as a team. The Patna meeting has kept out irritants among the players, which itself is considered well-begun.
A lot had happened politically since the Opposition’s first and second meetings. There was a setback after the Nationalist Congress Party split this month. Eight NCP rebels, including Sharad Pawar’s close lieutenants Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal, have ditched the senior Pawar. Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar is now the new Deputy chief minister of the Shinde cabinet.
Secondly, in West Bengal, Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee won a massive victory in the recent Panchayat elections. Why do the national parties seek alliance? The BJP governs ten states independently and in partnership with five others, while the Congress governs four states independently and is partner in three state governments.
In about 180 seats, the primary challengers to the national parties are regional parties. The Congress versus BJP would be in about 230+ seats. Bharat Rashtra Samiti, Biju Janata Dal, Andhra Pradesh’s YSRCP, Bahujan Samaj Party, and other smaller parties with pockets of influence are neutral.
The Opposition is already broadly united in States like Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, and Jammu and Kashmir. The contradictions are: In West Bengal, the TMC directly competes with the BJP. The AAP is a rival to the BJP in Delhi and Congress in Punjab . In Kerala, it is Congress versus Left.
The main issue is whether Congress accepts allies as its equal and vice versa. Congress and the allies perceive each other as not having equal status. They must come to a mutual understanding. For instance, following the Patna meeting, AAP announced that attending future meetings would depend on whether Congress publicly denounced the recent ordinance hurting the Delhi government. Congress did that on Saturday and AAP is attending the Bengaluru meeting.
The second priority is establishing a Common Minimum Programme. The third is to agree on a convenor; the choice of the prime ministerial candidate will come later. The fourth is an apprehension that Narendra Modi might advance Lok Sabha polls. Hence Opposition parties must find the broadest possible consensus on various issues.
BJP is eyeing ‘NDA plus’ ahead of the 2024 elections and a hat trick for Modi. A new and expanded NDA will meet on July 18 in Delhi to discuss their plans. The BJP aims to secure 50% of the vote share by collaborating with new and old NDA members.
The BJP has shrunk because it lost four of its oldest allies since 2014- The Janata Dal (United), Akali Dal, Shiv Sena and JD(U). In a game of snakes and ladders, Telugu Desam and Akali Dal want to come back. Shiv Sena has split, and one faction will join the NDA..The NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar is also expected to join July 18 meeting.
The new members are -The Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party and the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena. Chirag Paswan, leader of the Lok Jan Shakti Party (RV), the former chief minister and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) leader Jiten Ram Manjhi and his son will be present. The JD(S) from Karnataka could also join the NDA meeting. There could be a delay in finalizing the return of the TDP and the SAD.
The BJP is becoming more attentive to its allies, as they feel they need to be consulted. It must nurse its allies in Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar, the northeastern and southern states. It must also keep channels open with neutral parties like Biju Janata Dal and YSRCP.
The purpose of the July 18 meeting is to signal NDA is strong. The BJP also wants to reduce the media spotlight on UPA’s Bengaluru meeting. Both coalitions plan to make full use of optics. Despite what happens in the two meetings, it is vital for the Opposition to maintain their unity and for the NDA to add more allies and prioritize their importance. Both coalitions are getting ready for the final battle after eight months. (IPA Service)
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