Non-Oil Activity in Saudi Arabia Maintains Momentum

Saudi Arabia’s non‑oil private sector sustained strong expansion in July, although growth eased compared with June. The Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global for Riyad Bank, slipped to 56.3 from June’s 57.2, yet remained well above the 50‑point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Domestic demand continued to underpin business activity, prompting firms to recruit aggressively. Employment surged again in July, marking another historic increase following June’s 14‑year high. Chief Economist Naif Al‑Ghaith commented that “the non‑oil economy remained on a solid growth track in July, supported by higher output, new business, and continued job creation”.

Despite this resilience, output growth moderated, registering its slowest pace since January 2022. Firms pointed to rising competition and reduced customer visits as key factors behind the slowdown. One of the more notable concerns was the first decline in new export orders in nine months, highlighting challenges in attracting foreign clients.

Cost pressures, while still elevated, showed a slight easing. Input price inflation decelerated marginally, though labour expenses remained steep amid efforts to retain staff through bonuses. Nevertheless, firms passed on some of this pressure to consumers, with output prices rising for a second consecutive month.

Looking back to June, the sector had posted particularly robust growth. The PMI rose to 57.2, driven by strong domestic demand, new project starts, and intensified marketing efforts. New orders reached a four‑month high, while hiring surged at its fastest pace since May 2011. Input costs rose sharply and were reflected in higher output prices, even as confidence among firms reached a two‑year high.

This strong performance aligns with broader economic diversification goals by boosting sectors beyond oil. In March, S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating to ‘A+’ from ‘A’, citing sustained progress under Vision 2030 and confidence in rising activity in construction, manufacturing, logistics, and mining. While the International Monetary Fund earlier revised down the country’s GDP forecast for 2025 to 3 percent, it acknowledged continued resilience in the non‑oil sector.

Regionally, the trends contributed to relative stability in the stock market. While shares in Saudi Arabia ended largely flat amid sectoral shifts, healthcare and energy gained traction, even as real estate, finance, and materials lagged behind. Firms operating across the region reported softer non‑oil demand signals, reinforcing cautious optimism among investors.

As Saudi Arabia navigates through post‑oil economic structures, the non‑oil sector stands out for its adaptability. Businesses continue to expand teams and absorb input challenges, yet face mounting pressure from market competition and weakened foreign demand. While optimism about future activity remains, it has notably softened to the lowest level since July 2024.