The Washington Institute for Near East Policy recorded 28 confirmed and reported attacks during October as of October 23, bringing its tally to 113 since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28. Additional incidents have subsequently been recorded, although a consolidated month-end figure remains unavailable.
Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington-based institute who maintains its maritime incident database, described October as the worst month for attacks since the organisation began tracking such incidents in 2017.
The escalation continued on Thursday and Friday, when United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) issued alerts involving tankers struck by projectiles and suspected explosive devices.
One tanker was hit by two limpet mines approximately 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, triggering an engine-room fire and temporarily disabling the vessel. The crew escaped injury, the fire was extinguished and the ship subsequently resumed its voyage.
Maritime security specialists identified the Panama-flagged Louise 1 as the vessel involved. Responsibility for the attack remained unclear, and the incident represented the first known successful use of limpet mines against commercial shipping in the waterway during the conflict.
UKMTO also recorded separate incidents involving tankers struck by unidentified projectiles during outbound passages through the strait. Investigations were continuing, with authorities advising vessels to exercise caution and report suspicious activity.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) had documented approximately 120 maritime incidents across the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East by October 23, broadly supporting the assessment of a sustained deterioration in shipping security.
Its records showed that more than 30 very large crude carriers had sustained damage during the conflict, including 11 during October. These vessels represent approximately 3.5 per cent of the global fleet of more than 900 supertankers.
Each very large crude carrier can transport approximately two million barrels of oil, making attacks on such vessels particularly significant for regional petroleum exports and international energy markets.
Greece-based maritime consultancy Marisks identified October as the most intensive period of attacks around Hormuz since hostilities escalated. Its assessment identified 12 vessels attacked between October 5 and October 11, the highest weekly total since fighting began.
The increase coincided with commercial operators continuing to transport oil through the waterway despite substantial security risks.
Shipping intelligence compiled by Lloyd’s List showed that 104 vessels without Iranian connections crossed the strait between October 5 and October 11, compared with 126 during the preceding week.
Although traffic declined, the October figure remained 31 per cent above the weekly average recorded during August, illustrating the commercial incentives encouraging shipowners to maintain operations.
Daily tanker freight rates exceeding $1 million, combined with substantial discounts offered by Gulf producers, have encouraged some operators to accept greater exposure to maritime threats.
Raydan assessed that Iran was attempting to discourage shipping movements and maintain pressure on international energy markets. That interpretation remains an assessment of Tehran’s objectives rather than an independently established explanation for every incident.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained a military presence around the strategic passage, while American naval forces have continued operations intended to protect commercial shipping and enforce restrictions affecting Iranian maritime trade.
The competing operations have complicated the security environment, with attacks involving drones, missiles, mines and other projectiles presenting different challenges for ship operators and naval escorts.
The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center has also documented attempted attacks, surveillance activity, drone overflights and radio communications directed at merchant vessels.
These activities can disrupt voyages even when vessels sustain no physical damage, as captains must assess potential threats before proceeding through designated shipping lanes.
UKMTO had recorded 135 incidents associated with the conflict by October 16. However, the organisation acknowledged difficulties establishing a complete picture because commercial operators do not consistently submit voluntary incident reports.
Differences between maritime databases also reflect variations in geographical coverage, reporting requirements and the time required to verify individual incidents.
The security situation has consequently required shipping companies to distinguish confirmed attacks from unverified claims, attempted strikes and military encounters that do not necessarily involve physical damage.
UKMTO’s October 22 alert concerned a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile approximately seven nautical miles northeast of Limah, Oman. The vessel continued towards its next port, with all crew members reported safe and no environmental damage identified.
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