OPEC Output Rebounds Strongly in August as Supply Revives

A Reuters-compiled survey reveals that OPEC’s oil output climbed in August following a coordinated decision to raise production, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia driving the increase.

The group lifted August output by approximately 400,000 barrels per day to reach 28.55 million bpd, according to a Bloomberg-based survey cited by Commerzbank. Saudi Arabia accounted for roughly 230,000 bpd of that surge, raising its production to about 9.6 million bpd—though still shy of its 9.756 million bpd quota. Iraq contributed a further 120,000 bpd, exceeding its quota by around 109,000 bpd.

This aligns with an earlier consensus among OPEC+ members to unwind 2.2 million bpd of voluntary output cuts by September 2025—including a 547,000 bpd rise scheduled for that month—with the UAE receiving a 300,000 bpd quota lift.

Options-market activity underscores the consequences of this supply revival: traders are increasingly betting on Brent crude sliding below $60, with speculative positioning in put options sharply rising. Indicators from Bloomberg and derivatives analysis point to widespread hedging against further downward pressure on prices.

That sentiment is mirrored in commodity markets. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate have retreated, with Brent hovering near a two-week low of $66.95 and WTI around $63.50 as participants anticipate additional supply increases at OPEC+’s upcoming weekend meeting.

Adds to that, U. S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 2.4 million barrels during the week ending 29 August—contrary to forecasts of withdrawals—adding to bearish outlooks around the supply-demand balance.

This series of developments places pressure on oil’s price support narrative. Although prices had held above $65 per barrel through summer—buoyed by strategic stock-building in China and seasonal demand—analysts warn that the ramped-up production could tip the market into surplus before year-end.

This OPEC output rebounds strongly trend encapsulates rising supply from key producers, the end of long-running voluntary cuts, and growing market expectations that oil could drift below $60 as the year closes.