OPEC Revises Oil Demand Forecast Amid Trade Tensions

Global oil demand projections for 2025 have been adjusted downward by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries , marking the first such revision since December. The updated forecast anticipates a growth of 1.30 million barrels per day in 2025, a reduction of 150,000 bpd from previous estimates. Similarly, the 2026 forecast has been lowered to 1.28 million bpd.

This adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected data from the first quarter and the influence of newly imposed U.S. trade tariffs, which have introduced additional uncertainty into global economic growth prospects. The tariffs, particularly those affecting trade with China, have raised concerns about their potential to dampen economic activity and, by extension, energy consumption.

Oil prices have responded to these developments, with Brent crude futures experiencing a decline of approximately 10% since the beginning of April, settling near $64.47 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude has followed a similar trend, trading at around $61.23 per barrel. Analysts attribute this downturn to the escalating trade tensions and their anticipated impact on global demand.

In response to the evolving market conditions, OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, have initiated a phased rollback of previous production cuts. This strategy aims to balance the market by gradually increasing output, despite the current price volatility. However, adherence to production quotas remains inconsistent among member countries. For instance, Kazakhstan reported an output of 1.852 million bpd in March, exceeding its agreed-upon limit, though it has pledged to compensate for the surplus in subsequent months.

The broader economic implications of the U.S. tariffs are also under scrutiny. China’s retaliatory measures, including increased tariffs on U.S. imports, have exacerbated concerns about a potential slowdown in global trade. Moody’s Analytics highlighted weakening Chinese inflation data, indicating a fragile economy. These factors contribute to a complex economic landscape that could influence energy demand moving forward.