Matein Khalid

Saudi finances and the oil crash

|By Matein Khalid| Saudi Arabia has fascinated me since I first met Hani AZ Yamani as a teenage student all those years ago at Wharton. Hani’s father was Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, legendary Saudi Oil Minister (1962-86) under Kings Faisal, Khalid and Fahd. Sheikh Yamani managed the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, survived a terrorist assault in Vienna by Carlos the Jackal, midwifed the birth of Saudi […]

October 28

Investing

Value ideas amid Asian carnage

|By Matein Khalid| 2015 has been a horror story for emerging markets and Asian shares have not escaped the fallout from the 40% plunge in Shanghai/Shenzhen since June. Yet financial markets discount the future while UAE investors invariably extrapolate the recent past. So even while I resurrect the ghosts of 1998 when Suharto’s regime fell amid anti-Chinese riots in Jakarta, South Korea was forced to accept a […]

October 07

Investing

Macro ideas in Asian currencies, crude

|By Matein Khalid| Even as China’s President meets the capo di tutti capi in Seattle, its manufacturing PMI falls to 47, a post Lehman low, with new export orders in a slump. I found it significant that the offshore yuan fell 200 pips to 6.4346 after the PMI. This proves my core argument, outlined a month ago. The Middle Kingdom will respond to its economic decline and […]

September 30

Investing

Fear and hatred in Emerging Markets equities

|By Matein Khalid| The world’s emerging markets have been savaged by multiple economic, banking, currency and political shocks since 2011. Global emerging markets are far too diverse and nuanced to be analyzed as a single asset class but now trade at a 24% valuation discount to developed markets. The financial markets now price draconian scenarios for earnings, exports, sovereign credit, industrial production and economic growth. The shortage […]

September 17

Investing

Fed, bank stocks and Wall Street bears

|By Matein Khalid| The Federal Reserve could well raise its overnight borrowing rate at the next FOMC monetary policy conclave on September 17. Though contagion from China’s 40% stock market meltdown has triggered bear markets from Hong Kong to Frankfurt and plunged Asian/emerging markets equities into ta ghastly replay of 1998’s epic meltdown (General Suharto’s overthrow, the Russian rouble default, Malaysia’s capital controls, the run on the […]

September 08

Columns

Hong Kong, China and the new macro game

|By Matein Khalid| Hong Kong now trades at 9.6 times earnings and 0.86 book value. Hang Seng valuations were gutted by the protest movements in Central and the Shanghai financial meltdown. The Hang Seng index is down 25% since late May and now trades at six times forward earnings, its post Lehman, post 2014 bottom. Hong Kong trades at its lowest price/book value since the Asian flu […]

September 02

Columns

Predicting first ‘Made in China’ global crisis

|By Matein Khalid| A month ago, I published a column predicting history’s first Made in China global recession. Wall Street finally agreed with me last week after we witnessed the most brutal crash in global equities since October 2008. I have predicated a 20% fall in US equities several times in the last three months and the 1000 point drop in the Dow last week only reinforces […]

August 28

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India Takes

Currencies: Collapse of Turkish lira

|By Matein Khalid| Geopolitics is now another source of risk for the Turkish lira, government debt and Istanbul equities. The Turkish air force is bombing Daish in Syria and the secessionist Kurdish PKK party in northern Iraq. Suicide bombings have killed Turkish citizens in eastern Anatolian cities on the Syrian border. Ankara has given the US a green light to launch military airstrikes from the Incerlik air […]

August 23

Investing

A ‘made-in-China’ recession

|By Matein Khalid| Every global recession since the OPEC oil shocks of 1973-74 was triggered by a contraction in the $17 trillion US economic colossus. The failure of Lehman Brothers, the meltdown in US subprime mortgages, the impotence of the implicit “Fed/Uncle Sam” put, the ice age in the commercial paper and interbank money markets all tipped the US economy into recession in late 2008 and triggered […]

August 05

Columns, Investing

FT deal and print media mergers

|By Matein Khalid|So Pearson PLC has sold the FT Group (with its flagship Financial Times newspaper) to Japan’s Nikkei Inc for $1.32 billion. Pearson will use the cash proceeds to increase its investment in education publishing businesses in the US and Canada, now 75% of revenues. This deal is a milestone in the history of newspaper publishing and my own life as an investor/financial journalist. I discovered […]

July 29

Investing

Aesthetics of art investing

|By Matein Khalid| As a student of investing and the son of a painter/art historian, I cherish art as a visceral, spiritual value but am also intrigued by its historical linkage to banking and the financial markets. The happiest moments of my life have been spent in the Prado, Tate, Hermitage, Rijksmuseum, Ufizi, MOMA, Met, the National Gallery on Trafalgar Square, the Louvre, Musee d’Orsay and so […]

July 22

Investing

Macro ideas: The Japanese bull market is intact

|By Matein Khalid| Last week was a roller coaster and the Nikkei Dow closed at 19,800. Abenomics has had a seismic impact on Japan’s economy, financial markets and banking system. The yen has fallen from 76 on the eve of the election in 2012 to 122 against the US dollar. Corporate profits have exploded. Land price rises, job growth, bonuses, capex and consumer spending have lifted Japan […]

July 14

Talking Point

Gold at $800 by 2016?

|By Matein Khalid| De Gaulle dissed gold as a “barbarous relic” and Lenin sneered the yellow metal was fit only to “pave capitalist latrines”. So what? Gold has been an monetary metal in human history for centuries, back to the time of Pharonic Egypt, the Inca Empire, King Midas and the Spanish conquistadores of Mexico. While President Nixon removed the gold/dollar Bretton Woods linkage in 1971 and […]

July 09

Columns

An OPEC output freeze deal in Algeria means $60 oil!

/By Matein Khalid/The oil market has been a rollercoaster in 2016. A global financial panic triggered by China’s yuan depreciation caused Brent crude to fall below $30 a barrel in late January. I was amazed at the sheer scale of the speculative short positions accumulated by oil traders and hedge funds in both West Texas and Brent futures markets, the highest since the oil crash of 2008. The […]

September 08