By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Despite all sorts of statements against Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party and the leader has got significant response by people during Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra so far. It makes PM Narendra Modi’s concerns worse, since Congress candidates would be offering closer contests to BJP candidates in numerous seats, making political battle tougher and outcome uncertain.
Congress was able to truncate BJP from power in Himachal Pradesh in 2022. BJP had won all 4 Lok Sabah seats from the state in Lok Sabha election 2019 and was able to bag 69.11 per cent of votes. Congress at that time could get only 27.30 per cent of votes. However, in the state elections, BJP’s vote share was reduced to only 43 per cent while Congress’s vote share surged to 43.90 per cent.
The other state where Congress is in power after offering humiliating defeat to the BJP is Karnataka. Out of 28 Lok Sabha seats, BJP had won 25 seats from the state while Congress had won only 1 seat in 2019. There was huge difference in vote share. BJP was able to get 51.38 per cent of vote share, while the Congress could get only 31.88 per cent. In the state election of 2023, the situation has reversed. BJP’s vote share declined to 36 per cent, while Congress’ vote share increased to 42.88 per cent.
Uncertainty about political outcome has also increased in the Rajasthan though BJP was able to wrest power from the Congress in the November 2023 assembly election. In the Lok Sabha election 2019, BJP had won 24 seats out of 25 while one seat was won by its ally. BJP’s votes share was 58.47 per cent as against 34.24 per cent of the Congress. However, November 2023 Vidhan Sabha election result shows that BJP’s vote share went down considerably to 41.70 per cent while Congress’ vote share increased to 39.58 per cent.
There will be also closer contest in Madhya Pradesh between Congress and the BJP. BJP had won 28 out of 29 seats from the state in 2019 Lok Sabha election, and only 1 seat was won by Congress. BJP’s vote share was 58 per cent and Congress’ vote share was 34.50 per cent. In the recently held 2023 state assembly election, BJP’s vote share came down to 48.55 per cent, while Congress vote share increased to 40.40 per cent.
BJP and Congress will also be in direct contest with each other in Chhattisgarh. Out of 11 Lok Sabha seats from the state, BJP was had won 9 seats in 2019, the rest 2 seats were won by the Congress. BJP’s vote share was 50.70 per cent as against 40.91 per cent of the Congress. In the November 2023 legislative assembly election, BJP’s vote share came down to 46.27 per cent while Congress’ vote share was increased to 42.23 per cent.
Haryana is another state where BJP and Congress are in direct contest to each other. In 2019 Lok Sabha election, all the 10 seats from the state were won by the BJP and the party’s votes share was 58.02 per cent. Congress had bagged 28.42 per cent of votes. Nevertheless, only few months later in the Vidhan Sabha election, BJP’s votes share dwindled to 36.49 per cent, while Congress’ vote share was 28.08 per cent. The difference between their votes share has considerably narrowed down indication tough contest between the two in the forthcoming Lok Sabah election 2024.
In Uttarakhand, BJP had won all 5 seats from the state in 2019 Lok Sabha election, and bagged 61.01 per cent of votes. Congress’ vote share was just 31.40 per cent. However, in 2022 state election, BJP’s vote share declined to just 44.33 per cent while Congress’ vote share increased to 37.91 per cent.
All these states have a total of 112 Lok Sabha seats out of which BJP had won 105 seats in the Lok Sabha election 2019. Given the closer contest scenario, the election outcome in these states have become uncertain, that has worsened the political concern of PM Narendra Modi. Additional Concern for the BJP and PM Narendra Modi is that Congress has also emerged as ruling party from Telangana, and there is every possibility that the party may increase its tally from the state.
Congress is part of INDIA alliance in several states where it shares power with regional parties, which include Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand. The success of Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in the North East indicates Congress’ resurgence in the region.
Though, the Congress has certain seat sharing problem in major states like West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, the party has still major political parties as ally in the state like Maharashtra which sends 48 members in the Lok Sabha, and also in Bihar that sends 40 MPs. Congress will have tacit understanding with other political parties too, both in the Northern and Southern states, which may increase the Congress’ tally in the Lok Sabha.
Congress had lowest 44 MPs in Lok Sabha after 2014 election, that increased to 52 in 2019. The party has every probability to increase its tally, making the way to power for PM Narendra Modi much more difficult in 2024 than it is expected, if we go by the ground level political reality at present. INDIA alliance can therefore, if united, could offer formidable challenge to BJP and NDA. (IPA Service)
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