The twist and turns in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dealing with the overtures to him from the US President Donald Trump in the last three weeks speak eloquently of the tussle that is going on at the highest level of the BJP leadership and the RSS over how to send the final response from India to Trump on the India-US trade deal.
For the Prime Minister, the issue has been taking the largest part of his work schedule as he is constantly under pressure from the US administration in covert and overt ways. Equally, the pressure is there from the leading US based Indian CEOs and the BJP lobbyists based in the US who have established a good equation with the Trump administration in the last eight months of Trump 2.0 regime.
The announcement by the external affairs ministry on Wednesday that the PM Narendra Modi will not be visiting Kuala Lumpur to attend the ASEAN Summit scheduled on October 26-28 was a belated decision by the PM himself since he wanted to avoid a one on one meeting with Donald Trump during the summit since Modi knew the way Trump functioned and the US President would have tried to impose the anti-Indian trade deal on an unwilling Modi. Trump in fact is desperate to have a face-to-face meeting with the Indian PM to force Modi to swallow the trade deal tilted against India.
More than two weeks back, the Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced to the media that those who would be attending the summit included US President Donald Trump and Indian PM Narendra Modi. Chinese President Xi Jinping would not be attending; China would be represented by their Prime Minister Li Quiang. In fact, in the ASEAN summit secretariat, there were discussions that the PM Ibrahim would host apart from ASEAN summit, Trump-Modi summit also to facilitate India-US trade deal announcement on its soil. Ibrahim is a favourite of Trump now by stopping the Thailand-Cambodia war recently through his mediation efforts. The Malaysia PM wanted to add another feather to his cap by facilitating the process of Trump-Modi meet in Kuala Lumpur. But that is not taking place. Ibrahim himself announced that on Wednesday simultaneously with the Indian government that the Indian PM will not be attending. He will address the ASEAN summit virtually.
Why did India take so many days to convey the decision to the ASEAN summit host that Modi will not be attending in person despite Trump attending? The main reason is that the White House officials, especially the advisers of Trump still feel that Trump will be able to browbeat Narendra Modi and persuade him to agree to deal as desired by the Americans. The prime issues are India allowing free market access to the US in its agri and dairy market and also the stoppage of the import of Russian oil. The latest discussions in Washington between the visiting Indian delegation and the US officials covered all the areas and zeroed the contents on few selected points, but these were delicate calling for consideration by the highest Indian government leadership, meaning PM Modi.
It is clear that the Prime Minister is not satisfied at the latest draft of the Washington meeting which contains dilution of the respective positions by both sides. If the draft was to the liking of India, PM would have attended the Kuala Lumpur summit and held his long-awaited meeting with Trump. Reports from Washington indicate that the White House has been peeved at this Indian decision and Trump may come out with some bitter comments on India and the trade deal after showing some courtesy in his comments in the last three days.
So, what next? The back-channel discussions may continue, but there can be no progress unless the PM takes a political decision on this delicate issue which has already aroused nationalist sentiments in the country. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and the majority of RSS leadership have told the PM Modi to take a tough position and look after Indian interests before considering to agree to the contents of the India-US trade deal. The RSS has taken a strong view of Trump’s hobnobbing with Pakistan and continuously praising sky-high the Pak army chief Asim Munir. Though the buy swadeshi products campaign has not had much impact, the RSS and Swadeshi Jagran Manch are still favouring the programme. Prime Minister himself felt personally humiliated as his friend Trump has been continuously saying that Modi has agreed to stop oil imports from Russia.
From this week, Prime Minister Modi and the senior leaders of the BJP will be busy with campaign for Bihar assembly elections. The outcome is crucial for both the PM and the RSS. The Sangh Parivar, despite some differences with the PM, have been making all efforts to help the BJP candidates in Bihar poll campaign. Till November 14, when the results will be out, Modi will be engaged with Bihar. If Trump dilutes his position further to keep India on his side, there is every possibility of the PM agreeing to the final draft and conclude the deal.
Trump advisers are expected to review the situation just as the PMO is also doing. Trump has to take note that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be visiting India in the first week of December. If the India-US relations do not improve before the Putin visit, that will have a direct impact at the India-Russia bilateral talks affecting the interests of the US which thinks India as its ally against China in Asia-Pacific. Can US afford to lose India taking into account the shape of geo politics in Asia? Much will depend on this assessment by the Trump administration after the ASEAN rebuff received by Trump from Narendra Modi? (IPA Service)
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