Nearly 48 hours after Donald Trump’s announcement about the India-US trade deal and Narendra Modi’s confirmation in his telephonic conversation, much has been written in the media by the experts, mostly following the lead given by the commerce minister Piyush Goyal in his press meet on Tuesday as to what positive impacts are taking place in different sectors of the economy. On the other hand, Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi came out with a scathing statement saying that Modi was under pressure and he surrendered.
Rahul Gandhi’s focus has always been on the failings of the PM. He mentioned two reasons of pressure from the US- one due to Adanis and second, some more information in Epstein files relating to PM. These two may or may not be the main reasons, but one of the major factors leading to Trump’s reduction of tariff rate for India was the expectation that he would get India by his side in his battle against China in Indo-Pacific on security issue. Trump wanted to formalize it before his meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in April this year.
That way, I am not saying Like Rahul Gandhi that Indian PM has fully surrendered to Trump giving up India’s strategic autonomy. My observation is that Trump is putting high pressure on Narendra Modi to surrender on the Deal linking it with his geo political strategy in India-Pacific, but Modi still has not fully given up. He is still trying to wriggle out of Trump trap with his head high by working on some face saving formula.
Why I am saying so? Just look at the contents of the social media messages of Indian external affairs minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and the US secretary state Marco Rubio issued on Wednesday morning. Both had talks on the eve of the US convened meeting on critical minerals convened in Washington on February 4. Pakistan is also attending this meeting. Rubio said in this message that the Indian foreign minister and he discussed bilateral cooperation on critical materials, exploration, development, mining. They concluded the meeting by expressing their commitment to expanding bilateral and multilateral commitment through QUAD. They acknowledged that a prosperous Indo-Pacific region remains vital to advancing common interests.
As against this, Jaishankar said in his message in X that facets of India-US strategic partnership discussed including trade, energy, critical minerals, defence, technology. Agreed to continue meetings of various mechanisms to advance our shared interests. There was no mention of QUAD, there was no mention of India-Pacific as was mentioned by Rubio.
It was significant that the importance of QUAD was underlined by Rubio after a gap of more than six months. Since SCO and BRICS meetings of the Indian PM and his gesture of aligning with global South and cordial meetings with both President Putin and President Xi Jinping, Trump got cold on the Indian PM and there was a talk in the White House that Trump was not interested to hold QUAD meeting in India as scheduled last year end. India also avoided mentioning about QUAD meeting schedule. India is supposed to be the host for the next meeting. So suddenly raising this issue of cooperation through QUAD by Rubio means that Trump has changed his tactics. He wants to browbeat Modi to be in the US side against China before he meets the Chinese President. All details of Trump-Modi phone conversation are not available, but my hunch is that Trump must have mentioned this to Modi in his talks on Monday night. Otherwise within 24 hours of Trump-Modi talks, Rubio would not have raised QUAD meet and India Pacific strategy with Dr. Jaishankar after keeping the issue under carpet for more than six months. Jaishankar did not reciprocate it means so far, PM has not made up his mind on the issue though certainly he is under pressure from the U.S. President.
But why it is that Trump suddenly became cosy to Narendra Modi within three weeks of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant saying that India has missed the train. That is not a priority for US now. Both Rubuio and Bessant are eyes and ears of Trump. So what Bessant said at that time had the stamp of Trump just as what Rubio told the Indian foreign minister on Tuesday also had the approval of Trump.
The hard reality is that Trump really needs India and Narendra Modi by his side in his Asia Pacific strategy before he starts bargaining with the Chinese President in April this year. Despite all his bravado, Trump is a bit isolated. His relations with the EU, his normal allies are not good. They are sulking on the issue of Greenland. India is a very powerful nation. If he gets India as an active member of QUAD, he feels stronger in dealing with the Chinese President in the talks. The Beijing talks will not just focus on the trade deal, it will deliberate on the security issues including Taiwan and the South China Sea. So from geo political aspect, Narendra Modi has become again important for Trump.
As far as I see, Narendra Modi is still negotiating for ensuring that the final prints at the last stage of negotiations before the deal is 100 per cent final. But as Trump is known for, he wants his pound of flesh and that in February itself. Now whether the Indian Prime Minister gives up completely to Trump pressure or is able to work out a face saving formula, that is to be seen. If the PM opts for strategic autonomy for India and refuses to be a part of Trump’s India-Pacific strategy against China, its impact certainly will be felt in finalizing the trade deal. (IPA Service)
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