Apologies for earlier error in title.
Surging inflation, plunging real wages, jumping mortgage delinquencies, and record crude and gasoline inventories… then Trump drops the ‘t’ word and the market melts up…
Intraday, March rate-hike odds hit 46%, seemingly surging off “off the table” levels before the week began…
Record all-time highs across everything…
It’s all banks all the time…
The Dow topped 20,600 – even as VIX spiked above 12…
The S&P 500 is up 7 days in a row – the longest streak since Sept 2013…
The VIX-S&P decoupling is growing wider…
Chatter of a major liquidation of S&P call spreads – which fits with the collapse of the VIX term structure – VIX jumping as VXV tumbles)
S&P 500 Price to Book is now well over 3.00x – well above the 2007 peak valuation….
Bonds were battered again on data then rallied back…
As it seems 3.10% is a cap for now on 30Y…
The Dollar Index began the day rising for the 11th straight day – the longest winning streak since 2012 – but after spiking higher on surging inflation, the USD tumbled all day (weak IP, weak mortgage?)
AUD and Yuan strength were the biggest weights on the dollar…
RBOB and WTI dumped (correctly) on record inventories, then algos panic-bid them before they plunged again…
Silver and Gold rallied back to unch on the week (as the dollar faded) but crude and copper faded…
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