Microsoft is down 7.8% as I write as the thesis I outlined yesterday for the 330 short is sadly playing out and now even the Azure growth franchise exhibits decelerating growth. PC shipments, IT spending, operating margins and EPS are all going to be downgraded in the next six months. I am really convinced that MSFT will trade well below 200 by early 2023. My strategic target is 150 to 160 by late 2023.
Too tired to analyze Alphabet now but it is a bad omen when both Google Search and YouTube revenues go negative. Mark to market in 2022 will be replaced by mark to make believe in 2023 and PE will be P/F or price to fantasy ratio. Every private market portfolio in the Middle East has multiple ticking time bombs that Abu Muhasib cannot even fathom but I take my cues from Tiger Global, once a $90 billion colossus whose NAV has now fallen by 50% and Softbank who just took a $45 billion write off on its Silicon Valley go go unicorn book.
I am sorry for the short note as I spent the entire at the lovely Rosewood Hotel in Abu Dhabi meeting some of the Gulf’s most brilliant CIO and a handful of truly fascinating fund managers from Wall Street, Silicon Valley, the Huston oil and gas world and of course Maestro Maximo from my favourite EM Brazil. The Middle East CIO Summit was an exhilarating intellectual and social experience. I speak tomorrow on technology investing, so wish me luck and hope I do not freeze with stage fright!
I hope all of my friends had a wonderful Diwali. May the festival of lights brighten all our lives.
Also published on Medium.
