For France, the national politics has never been so exciting in recent years as the French President Emanuel Macron announced the holding of snap polls in the country on June 30 and July 7 after the disastrous results of his party in the European Parliament elections on June 9 this year. At a time, when every political observer of the big media was forecasting far right take over of France, the quick understanding between the anti-Right parties in the country to fight the polls jointly has imparted a new dimension to the political battle in France.
For the first time after 1936 popular front era, there is a real possibility of the left wing alliance of the Socialists, Communists, Greens and Jean Len Melenchon’s France Unbowed (LFI). The distribution of seats between the alliance partners has already been done. Latest polls indicate that the newly formed Left alliance is just three points behind the Marine Le Pen’s party’s figure of 31 per cent while the Macron’s party remains a poor third at 14 per cent.
What a change in the popular mood?. In 2022 elections, Jean Melenchon gave a good fight to Macron for the presidential elections, but in the last two years, the relations among the left parties deteriorated sharply and till two weeks back, there was a gloom in the left camp that France was drifting away to far right and Marine Le Pen assuming power was just a matter of time. The snap polls announcement and the unity achieved by the progressive forces under one banner have completely changed the political mood leading many of the pro-Macron centrists to leave his camp and support the new Popular Front
Macron had no need to call National Assembly elections as they were last held in June 2022 and no further vote was due until 2027. But the French president was under seize for quite some time as his party’s national assembly number of 250 out of the total of 577 was not adequate for him to get passed some important legislations which he wanted
His centrist alliance of Renaissance, Horizons and Mo Dem is languishing in third place and his hopes of attracting the centre left have foundered. President Macron is virtually beleaguered as the far right party of Marine Le Pen is eroding his base and there is an all round impression that he is a weak President. The media is agog with speculation that Le Pen’s party which has presently 88 seats in the national assembly will cross Macron’s party in the next elections. President Macron is now clueless on how to fight and on the basis of what programmes.
There are 577 seats in the National Assembly, including 13 overseas districts and 11 constituencies that represent French expats abroad. For an absolute majority a party needs 289. AS per electoral rules, the first round eliminates all candidates who fail to make 12.5 per cent of the votes. Anyone who scores 50 per cent of the votes with a turnout of at least a quarter of the local electorate wins automatically. That happens only in a few constituencies.
That is why the second round is crucial. Under this, the candidate who gets largest votes, wins. There are understandings in this round to defeat a particular candidate. For instance, the centrists of Macron’s party may vote for the left to keep out the far right candidates in this final round. It is expected that most candidates of Le Pen’s National Rally will enter the second round but they can be defeated by a tactical understanding between the anti far right parties.
Another interesting development is that President Macron may remain as President till his full term expires in 2027. That means whoever forms the new government after July 7 led by either Le Pen’s party or the popular front, they have to cohabit with the President Macron for three more years. There are such instances before. President Macron has already announced that he will remain as president till 2027 and he is not going to resign if his party fails to form the new government.
There is all round optimism among the left wing parties in France on the eve of the snap polls. The French Communist Party which is contesting 50 seats out of the total of 577 has launched massive campaigning in the workers areas as in the last few years, there has been some erosion in its trade union base. The trade union body CGT has organized general body meetings in all units explaining the urgency of ensuring victory of the alliance candidates. Jean Melenchon’s party is contesting in 229 seats while the Socialists will contest in 175 seats and Greens in 92 seats.
The pact’s name refers to the historic left-wing alliance that governed France from 1936 while fascism was arriving in power in other European countries. The Popular Front, which achieved social conquests such as paid vacations, is a historical reference for the French left as important as the Commune or the 1789 Revolution. However there is some difference in situation between 1936 and 2024. Adolf Hitler was then firmly in power in Germany and in Italy, Mussolini was in full control. In Germany now, the far right is aggressive but it has got a jolt also due to the combined fight by the Social Democrats and the Left. In Italy, President Giorgia Meloni is a semi fascist but her popularity is on decline, it has gone down by 10 per cent since she took over. In Britain, Labour Party is set to win the national elections to be held on July 4. There are differing trends though, there has been a big shift to right after the European Parliament elections in early June this year.
That way, the newly forged Popular Front has a historic responsibility to turn the present far right tide towards a progressive pro people alliance in the coming elections in France. The task is very tough but not impossible. Much depends on the impact of the Left campaign in the coming eight days before the first round on June 30 and the subsequent tactical approach in the second round. France can again create a new history. (IPA Service)
