Narendra Modi, known for his histrionics, trying to equal the record of Jawaharlal Nehru, by becoming the prime minister for the three successive terms, simply by reactivating the dormant Sangh sympathisers and modules to ensure his victory
During his never die campaign in Karnataka, during the last two months, Modi visited the state at least 12 times. With assembly elections still nearly 45 days away, he will be visiting Karnataka for another dozen of campaign schedules. Winning Karnataka assembly election may not be his priority. But in the prevailing situation, with his personal image and charisma at critical stake, it has attained importance for him. Modi fully understands that Karnataka outcome would have a psychological bearing on the minds of the common people, especially on the self-oriented and inward looking middle class, and motivate this section to vote for Modi in 2024, so that he succeeds in his mission to occupy the office of the prime minister for the third time in a row, matching Nehru.
BJP’s dismal performance the assembly elections in three Northeastern states — Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya— has already inflicted damage on Modi’s reputation of being an astute politician. While his lieutenant Amit Shah virtually camped in the region for nearly a month, Modi carried out numerous road shows and addressed a large number of rallies. However, their combined efforts failed to motivate the people of the region to vote for Modi. BJP candidates lost their deposits in 58 constituencies out of 60 in Meghalaya, the state which was the focus of Modi and Shah.
The mega show which the BJP organised in Meghalaya after the results and projected the outcome as the personal victory of Modi, could nonetheless not hide the fact the people have developed averseness to BJP, especially to Modi. Extraneous projection of Gujarat victory could not change the ground reality. Frankly speaking, Modi is shaken by the emerging realities and increasing lack of peoples’ faith in his leadership. A gradual erosion ofin his own confidence also foreshadows the swift change in reposing his trust in the Karnataka BJP leaders.
Nearly a month back, Modi had picked the strongman of Karnataka, B S Yediyurappa and projected him as the modern face of the state BJP, entrusting him with the onerous task of electrifying the electoral campaigning in the southern state. At Shivamogga public meeting on 27 February, Modi walked up to Yediyurappa and posed holding his hand, to give off an image of warm friendship projecting BSY as the Karnataka face of party. But within a fortnight, the command was handed over to the chief minister Basavraj Bommai, whose antagonistic relation with Yediyurappa is well known. Bommai was also named the head of the BJP campaign committee. Bommai is now the new the new face of the party.
Wild speculations are making rounds in the public sphere, some asserting that BSY’s past has obliterated his future: Yediyurappa has lost his status and prestige. This has been happening in spite of the fact he is the Lingayat face of Karnataka. Bommai is also a Lingayat, but he does not command the same respect from the community that Yediyurappa does.
Experts feel that Modi and Shah have decided to purge BSY only with the view to win the support of yet another backward caste, the Vokkaliga. But this gamble would prove too costly to the BJP leadership. In fact, the BJP does not have a leader of stature who could represent the caste interest of Vokkaligas. The crisis of leaders is so acute that Modi has been working overtime to engineer defection from the ranks of Congress and JD(S) for getting a good leader.
The internal crisis within the BJP has intensified, coinciding with the congealing of the anti- incumbency mood amongst the voters. A badly divided state leadership has virtually disarmed itself before the challenges from the Congress. The situation has come to such a pass where every leader treats himself as virtually indispensable. They are free to work and say anything absurd as they prefer.
Only a fortnight back, the state BJP chief Kateel made nasty remarks against Tipu Sultan. Subsequently, a senior leader Eashwar acriticised Azaan, the Muslim call to prayer, and deplored the practice. He even questioned the relevance of Azaan, saying: “This is a headache wherever you go. There is the Supreme Court judgment. Why Allah could hear only if screamed through loudspeakers. If he needs a loudspeaker, then we have to call him deaf.”
With the state leaders groping in the dark, the task to steer the party to victory lies on Modi. Only two days back, he laid the foundation stones of projects worth around ₹ 16,000 crores in Mandya and Hubballi-Dharwad districts, a strong hold of JD(S) leader, H D Deve Gowda. He inaugurated the Bengaluru-Mysuru Expressway. On the occasion, he projected himself as the “Unnayan Purus”, a person who is committed to development. He said: “Congress leaders are busy dreaming of ‘digging Modi’s grave’ while I’m is busy in building Bengaluru-Mysuru Expressway and improving the lives of poor.”
But the peoples’ mood provide enough indications that he has not succeeded in winning their hearts. The Old Mysore Region, with 61 assembly seats, is a stronghold of the JDS. The Congress has also been a major force in the area. BJP sources however maintain that the top leaders are planning to induct at least a dozen winnable candidates from JD(S) and Congress just ahead of elections to field them in Mandya, Mysuru, and Chamarajanagar.
Though the BJP performed well in coastal Karnataka and the Mumbai-Karnataka regions, this time it would find going tough as Reddy Brothers of Ballari fame have formed their own party, Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha, with the avowed mission to ensure the defeat of the BJP in the region. They would be fielding 30 candidates in six districts of Karnataka, all their strong holds. Janardhan Reddy is angry with the BJP as it had abandoned him during the time he faced the worst crisis of his life.
The news which has really scared the Congress and JD(S) is that over the last three years, communal clashes have virtually doubled. Shivmogga, which has seen large number of such clashes, has been under the scanner of BJP leadership. It is said that in order to gain cheap popularity and win the emotions of Hindus, Popular Front of India (PFI) was banned. But it has backfired. The areas where it has been banned, have in recent times seen maxim number of communal clashes. It has become tough for the police to identify the culprits. In 2022 alone, nearly 22 clashes took place.
The political scenario of the state has become more complicated with All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) leader Asaduddin Owaisi deciding to set up candidates in elections. It is learnt that it would contest 30 Assembly seats in the state. However, local Muslims do not approve of his move and also question where he was when the Hindu bigots had been targeting them.
This is for the first time that AIMIM is contesting the Karnataka election independently. In the previous elections, the party had an alliance with Janata Dal-Secular (JDS). It is feared that AIMIM will split anti-BJP and secular vote, as it did in Bihar and UP, which helped BJP. Some experts even say that AIMIM is a rightist party, which is why it has been simply inflicting damage to the centrist and secular forces.
Nevertheless, the Congress leadership, which is confident of BJP defeat in the state, looks at the scenario with fingers crossed. They are scared of it making a dent into Congress’ Muslim vote bank, which has been a traditional Congress support base. It could eat into the Congress’ vote share and hurt its prospects in the upcoming elections.
Apparently on a strong pitch, after the Bharat Jodo Yatra passing through the state, the Congress is nonetheless facing the threat of BJP design to consolidate the Hindu votes using the communal slogan “SAVARKAR VS TIPU”. Though Modi talks of development and empowering the poor, his cadres and state leaders have been busy spreading religious hate campaign. Communal violence and lawlessness have been the hallmark. This is being done in connivance with the administration. (IPA Service)
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