By Dr. Gyan Pathak
The public mood across India is now somewhat visible behind hitherto hazy political cloud. The latest Mood of the Nation Survey of India Today – Cvoter has just found that the BJP is on its downhill journey along with its partners in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while the opposition INDIA alliance is moving fast upward nearing very close to offer neck and neck contest to NDA in the Lok Sabah election 2024.
If elections are held today NDA would win 43 per cent of votes while INDIA would be able to get 41 per cent of votes, the Survey says. Since, it is just only the beginning of the formation of the INDIA alliance, the survey results are significant. Consolidation phase of the INDIA alliance is about to begin in a big way which may further enhance the political prospect of the opposition alliance.
It should be noted that the survey was conducted between July 15 and August 14. The period was marked by greater political uncertainties within INDIA alliance, such as there was a split in NCP in Maharashtra, and the Congress – AAP relationship was still in fluid state. Situation seems to be changing fast and on August 25, NCP leader Sharad Pawar has said that there was “no conflict, no split in party”. Moreover, the relation between Congress and AAP has been improving. INDIA alliance seems to be gaining strength and all set to improve its share of votes viz-a-viz BJP.
The BJP leadership knows this fact which they betray in their political and administrative actions being taken out of frustration. All their unity bids in the party among warring factions within have failed in election bound states in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh that forced them to not announce party’s CM faces. Party has announced even their fist list in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh which is met by stiff opposition and demonstration by aggrieved factions. As for administrative actions, the BJP led Centre has now intensified action against leaders of the opposition across states, which they hope may weaken the opposition, as it is understood by the threatening language of even PM Narendra Modi during his campaigns in election bound states.
The reason of such frustration can be seen even in the Mood of the Nation Surveys that are conducted twice a year. The Actual seats won by NDA in Lok Sabha election 2019 were 352. The January 2022 Survey said that NDA was down to 296 while January 2023 Survey found it little better to 298. The August Survey estimated that NDA could win 306 seats, which was much less than 352 in 2019. It clearly shows the downhill journey of NDA since 2019.
As for the opposition INDIA alliance, the parties had won 91 seats in Lok Sabha election 2019. August 2023 Survey finds that INDIA alliance will have big jump to 193 seats if election is held today. It was a massive improvement, though the Survey puts NDA in a position to form the government at the Centre.
BJP has much to worry, since it is faced with diminishing political prospect as is also noted by the August 2023 Survey. BJP is projected to win 287 seats as against 303 it had won in 2019. Though the number is still 15 more than required for a simple majority of 272 to form the government at the centre, the fast-changing political scenario on the ground with upward trend of the opposition INDIA alliance’s prospect has instilled a fear and disquiet in the BJP leadership.
The ever-narrowing gap of vote shares between the NDA and the opposition INDIA alliance is an additional source of worry for the BJP leadership. The August 2023 survey has projected this gap to only 2 per cent, which indicates that there would be neck and neck contest between the NDA and INDIA alliance in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election 2024.
Congress is gaining ground fast. In 2019, the party could win only 52 seats. The August 2023 survey says that the party could win 74 seats if elections are held today. The rise of the Congress is disquieting for the BJP, since it has recently defeated the Congress in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka Vidhan Sabah elections. Most importantly, the star campaigners were PM Narendra Modi from the BJP and Rahul Gandhi from the Congress. It was a significant development since the humiliating defeat of the BJP in the hands of the Congress indicated failing charisma of PM Modi at one hand and the rising influence of Rahul Gandhi on the other, especially after the Bharat Jodo Yatra.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s statement made from Jammu and Kashmir on August 25 that Congress is going to win the four Vidhan Sabha elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana, is just and upbeat mood on account of rising political prospect of the Congress, and with it of the Opposition INDIA alliance.
The present survey of August 2023 also says that the other political parties that are not yet part of either NDA or the opposition INDIA alliance could win only 44 seats. It was a great fall in their political fortune compared to projected win of 120 seats as per the January 2022 survey. It indicates that INDIA alliance’s gains are chiefly at the cost of other political parties. INDIA alliance, with completion of seat sharing arrangement within parties, is set to become greater threat to BJP and NDA than it was noted during the survey.
The raising of emotive issues by RSS-BJP clan on communal lines, such as Kashi, Mathura, or Uniform Civil Code etc, are just manifestation of their frustration emanating from their falling political prospects that are now visible, and being confirmed by their inner assessments and public surveys. BJP leadership has been trying to put brake on its downhill journey for quite some time now, however, the reports coming from the election bound states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh indicate the party is standing on very slippery ground with bitter infighting. (IPA Service)
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