By Ashis Biswas
As pre-poll campaigning heats up for the coming Assembly polls in Tripura and Meghalaya, people of Nagaland are somewhat disappointed that the greater ’political solution ‘ for the state remains unsettled. State-based regional parties as well as local Congress leaders acknowledge that their participation in the polls may not be whole-hearted.
Nagaland along with Meghalaya goes to polls on February 27 while the Tripura Assembly election will be held on February 16. The outcome would be announced on March 2.The two biggest national parties, BJP and Congress, are contesting the polls in all three states.
In 2023, the pre pol situation is somewhat different in Tripura and Meghalaya in comparison with 2018. West Bengal-based Trinamool Congress (TMC) is putting up candidates in Tripura and Meghalaya, posing as a challenger of some strength. Its massive defeat in the Tripura civic polls has not apparently dampened the spirit of its leaders and supporters.
For the BJP, campaigning has got more difficult in Meghalaya, where its major ruling coalition partner the National Peoples’ Party (NPP) has announced its decision to go solo , even as preparations got under way. The BJP won only two seats out of 60 in 2018 assembly polls, but in alliance with the NPP shared political power, increasing its overall strength to 6, has been caught unawares.
State BJP leaders have put on a brave face on the developments and signalled their intent to contest all seats if possible. State party President Mr Mawrie and other leaders expected the saffron party to win around 15/16 seats in Tura and areas adjacent to Shillong. But the political observers do not agree with BJP’s estimate. They feel that BJP on its own will be limited to a tiny figure
A general perception among Christians and Muslims in the northeastern states of the BJP as a hardline pro-Hindutva force remains a major factor in both Meghalaya and Nagaland. Recent developments in Assam where especially Muslim minorities have been victims of official bulldozer-aided demolition schemes, have set alarm bells ringing among sections of people in other states. The BJP’s opposition to beef-eating too, remains a sore point among Christians in Nagaland and Meghalaya.
As if these were not off-putting enough, the general distrust and concern among people over the BJPs’ CA Act and its stress on the NRC exercise to be implemented in the NE region, are also major sticking points in the BJP’s campaign. Both the botched-up Assam NRC operation and the CA Act are seen as being discriminatory against minority communities like Muslims and Christians, rightly or wrongly.
The Christian community as a whole has carried out a quiet but sustained. campaign on these issues, supported by a section of Muslims as well. Observers say its divergence on such issues with the BJP led the NPP to ditch its alliance with the BJP.
In Tripura, the BJP is relatively on firmer ground, having won convincingly in 2018pols and cementing its victory with a near total sweep of the civic elections. However, Congress, the CPI(M) and the TMC all accuse the party of having violated norms of democratic functioning and resorting to sheer brute force to subdue all opposition, aided by an inactive police force, to win the civic polls.
As in 2018, political stability and improved law and order are major planks in the BJPs campaign. State party leaders follow the lead provided by Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Mr Amit Shah, in their speeches. Both leaders naturally highlight national issues more than local trends and developments.
Mr Shah referred to the reduction in the overall ambit of political, extremist and other forms of violence in the NE region as a whole in recent years. This improvement he attributed to the sustained policy initiatives, investments and political programmes launched by the saffron party in a region which had been long neglected by other parties, especially Congress.
Between 2018 and 2023, according to Shah, the level of violence had declined by 42%, many former insurgents surrendered with their arms, stabilising local peace and security.
This had enabled the centre to suspend the use of the controversial AFSPA legislation which opposition parties alleged, curtailed almost all civil rights, by empowering the armed forces/police in absolute terms, said Mr Shah. Also, the launch of major infra related projects from Assam to Tripura had strengthened connectivity, reduced travel time, helped trade and business and generated new jobs.
In opposition, both the CPIM) and Congress pointed to the appalling misrule in Tripura, where corruption and lawlessness had crossed all limits. Farmers, tea plantation workers and Government employees in general had been by high inflation and fuel prices, without getting any relief from the centre or the Tripura Government.
If the BJP is isolated in Meghalaya, the TMC has suffered the same fate in Tripura.
Despite putting in former Bengal Minister Mr Rajib Banerjee as TMC leader-in-residence for Tripura during the last few months, the party could not work out any alliance with either Congress or others opposing the BJP. The TMC had hoped to improve its chances by roping in Ms Sushmita Dev, experienced former Congress leader from Barak valley in Assam to help its efforts in Tripura.
Party supremo Mamata Banerjee, her nephew MP Abhishek Banerjee, have also visited Tripura (as well as Meghalaya) on several occasions, in a bid to rev up the party’s pre poll efforts and put up a strong fight to secure a foothold in the NE region. They employed the expensive expertise of the Prashant Kishor-led IPAC team in the process, leaving nothing to chance.
The TMC made a serious bid to work out an alliance with the strong new entrant in the Tripura polls, the tribal Tipra Motha
party led by the popular Mr, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma. The new party just won the tribal autonomous district polls convincingly, defeating the BJPs’ ally in Assembly, the IPFT — this party had win 8 out of 60 seats in the outgoing Assembly. In Tripura 20 seats are reserved for various tribes.
Through a smaller local party a few days ago, a proposal was floated to launch an anti-BJP alliance including the TM, the TMC and others interested in fighting against the BJP including willing Congressmen. However, there was hardly any takers for the initiative. So TMC has decided to fight al the 60 seats alone. A high level meeting was held on January 20 in Kolkata in the presence of Tripura TMC president and it was decided to launch vigorous campaign with the backing of the Bengal leaders.
Latest position is that TIPRA supremo Pradyot Manikya Debbarman had talks with BJP leaders in both Agartala and Delhi and both the parties are working on a draft understanding on the basis of the demands made by TIRA chief about separate Tipraland. Sources say the BJP leaders are assuring more autonomy to the present Tribal Council with additional powers. It is to be seen whether Pradyot agrees to that… If BJP and TIPRA can finally agree that will be a big boost to the saffron party before elections.
Despite its protestations in Meghalaya (but not in Tripura!) that it is not a Bengali-dominated party, the TMC is seen in the region as a whole as an extension of the Bengal-based party — which it is, factually speaking. Its efforts to peddle Bengal-type mass welfare schemes (freebies) like Swasthasathi and others where women are entitled to get Rs 500 from the state Government, along with free rations and medical treatment in Meghalaya did not go down well.
Outgoing NPP Chief Minister Mr Conrad Sangma personally shot down the TMC’s efforts to highlights its ‘freebies’ culture, pointing to the present financial crisis of West Bengal. Substantiating his arguments with official stats, he pointed out that under the TMC today, every Bengal citizen inherited a personal debt of Rs 60,000-plus to the central government.
West Bengal’s overall indebtedness to the centre exceeded Rs 500,000 crore, from around Rs 180,000 crore in 2011. The major reason for this, said Mr Sangma, was the TMC’s reckless ‘welfare’ schemes which landed the state in a permanent debt trap. Meghalaya would never implement such schemes, he added.
In Nagaland, the biggest party NDPP, which had won over 40 seats out of 60, with BJP on 12, was yet to respond to the announcement of elections. Most parties including Congress said they would have to participate in the polls following the Election Commission’s announcement. Smaller local parties pointed out that the centre had special powers that it could use to declare some kind of agreement/solution to the long standing demand for a ‘frontier Nagaland state’ with special status.
The centre has been engaged in political negotiations with the insurgent organisation NSCN (Muivah group) as well as other Naga groups and association, to declare an autonomous Naga state that would satisfy the aspirations of the tribespeople for maximum political autonomy.
Ruling Chief Minister Mr Rio (NDPP) said the state would participate in the polls as he wished to avoid a Constitutional crisis and avoid a spell of President’s rule. (IPA Service)
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