If the exit polls on the five state assembly polls relating to Telangana are to be believed, the BJP’s grandiose plans to conquer South as envisaged by both the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Home Minister Amit Shah, will be in tatters after December 3. Following the resounding defeat in Karnataka assembly in May this year, the marginalization of the BJP in Southern states is a blot on its status as the national party.
Numerically, the percentage of votes may continue to be the base line for its recognition as the national party, but the harsh reality is it practically has no presence in southern states, below the Vindhya. If the Karnataka defeat has blocked its path of entry into south India, using Karnataka as the gateway to the south, the relegation in Telangana has the BJP turned into a party of the Hindi-speaking states, confined to the northern and central regions of the country. Ironically, for the party which claims to having largest number of members across the world, this distinction of being completely shunned from south India is rather unflattering, to say the least.
The downgrade of BJP in Telangana is what the polling agencies found during their exit poll surveys. Incidentally, only 48 hours ahead of the D-day, Narendra Modi in a blistering attack on Congress and Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao, had assured the people of Telangana that defeat of the “farm house CM” and the victory of BJP were bound to happen on December 3. If the exit polls are any indicator, the people have rejected his call. Since the last assembly election in which BJP had got one seat, it has been making efforts to present itself as the alternative to the Congress. But the findings of the exit poll makes it amply clear that the people of Telangana refused to believe the prime minister.
KCR brought in the uniquely conceptualised Rythu Bandhu Scheme that allotted Rs 5,000 per acre to land owners. Later, he extended the scheme as Dalit Bandhu. However, his problems surfaced after his second term began, and along came misgovernance and loss of direction. No doubt KCR implemented many welfare policies which brought about visible changes in Telangana. But his soft attitude towards the BJP during the last couple of years made the people suspect his intentions.
Another major criticism against the BRS has been the alleged vice-like grip the KCR family has on the state administration. Many of the BRS MLAs are also accused of corruption in their constituencies. People of the state are angrier with the party functionaries and MLAs than KCR himself. They allege that ruling party MLAs have been prioritising their cronies in welfare schemes.
Moreover, the Hyderabadi people are equally aware of the fact that BJP, BRS and AIMIM have been working in tandem to ensure the defeat of the Congress. Their joining hands has simply helped the Congress and has made it a bipolar contest between the Congress and the BRS. In contrast to KCR’s negative approach, Congress articulated the heart-felt regional aspirations and identified with Telugu pride. Over the past few months, Congress came to symbolize and occupy the voice of and the space for political dissent in Telangana.
What a sheer irony, Modi, who had given the call for “Congress-mukt Bharat”, could not salvage the situation and the condition is gradually turning into a “BJP-mukt Dakshin Bharat” [BJP-free south India].Sadly, the BJP and RSS have indeed split India along ideological and linguistic lines. Despite their repeated attempts to completely marginalisethe Congress, they have failed to successfully accomplish the task. Despite RSS having a strong network in southern states, it has 2,000 sakhas alone in Telangana, the BJP could not perform well. In the last assembly election, it could win only one seat.
Telangana may be an exception, as usually the agencies conducting exit polls prefer to remain on the right side of the party ruling the country in the centre, especially after Modi coming to power. We have two examples before us. In 2015 assembly election for Bihar, almost all the exit polls had declared BJP as the winner. But the counting of the votes gave away the game. In 2019 election for Delhi also the pollsters and exit polls had placed the BJP much ahead of AAP. But it was AAP which got 62 out of 70 seats.
This time again they have announced BJP as the victor in Madhya Pradesh. A video making rounds in the social circuit, in which the owner of the agency and two senior journalists of India Today TV, are seen discussing the agency giving 140 seats to BJP in MP, has exposed the modus operandi of the agencies.
Incidentally, the most of the agencies have given an upper hand to BJP in Madhya Pradesh. They may claim to be right as SP of Akhilesh Yadav and other local parties have been in the fray to ensure the defeat of Congress. But the prevailing ground realities do not confirm this. The BJP is badly split. The situation has turned worse with Modi sidelining Shivraj Singh “Mama” and projecting himself as the public face. The election was a battle between the Congress and Modi.
Most of the exit polls presented a mixed picture of the elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, and Telangana. Some predicted the BJP’s victory in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and MP. Whereas, others projected the Congress party wining in these states. An ebullient Shivraj Singh attributed the exit poll victory to his welfare programme ‘Laadli behna’.
Nevertheless there is no ambiguity about the miserable failure of the RSS and BJP design to turn India “Congress Mukt”. This 2023 prelude to the 2024 general election has made it abundantly clear that Rahul Gandhi and his Bharat Jodo Yatra has rejuvenated the Congress at the grassroot level. Poll observers in Telangana point out that the ground level cadres and leaders of the party who had lost all hopes of resurrection of the party have received a new lease of life with the success of the Yatra. Some of the Congress workers who had switched over to BJP in recent months have returned to their parent party.
They also underline that a sizeable section of the Muslim voters who had earlier sided with the AIMIM have come back to the Congress. To substantiate their claim, they cite the AIMIM fielding very nominal candidates in the state. They point out that AIMIM fields large number of candidates in Bihar, Maharashtra and in other states, but it has refrained in Telangana, its home state which has high Muslim population. In fact, invigoration of the cadres and Muslims showing their inclination towards Congress has changed the political complexion of the state.
Yet another factor which torpedoed the future prospect of BJP in all the states has been the use of undignified and unsavoury language by Modi and Amit Shah. Rajasthan has witnessed the worst kind of communal speeches and use of derogatory remarks. Election Commissioner served a show cause notice to Rahul Gandhi for his “panauti” (harbinger of bad luck) remark against Modi. The EC also drew attention to his comparing a prime minister to a jaibkatra (pickpocket). But deplorably, the same EC maintained a deafening silence against Modi when he used derogatory words against Congress leaders.
Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot alleged that the “language” spoken by the top BJP leadership during electioneering was “dreadful”. He accused them of relying on the content which were “vengeful and aimed at creating communal tension.” He said: “The people didn’t appreciate this kind of campaign. They tried their best to incite passions but the strategy didn’t work.” (IPA Service)
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