By Dr. Gyan Pathak
As the BJP inches forward with its seat-sharing exercise with current and potential allies, including its estranged former partners in the NDA, its faultlines, till now given cover by PM Narendra Modi’s authoritarianism, have started coming out into the open. The BJP-BJD alliance talks took a direct hit after an open revolt by the party’s state unit. It is the latest hint of greater troubles waiting in the wings for the BJP and the NDA across the country. Lying dormant until now, the troubles will erupt if Modi doesn’t rein in his streak of authoritarianism. Discontent within the BJP, and in the NDA, has gone up to ominous levels.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had claimed that BJP will win 370 seats, and the NDA 405 seats, in the Lok Sabha elections. He has thus an expectation of 35 seats from his present NDA allies. But that is impossible considering that most of the allies are marginal political players and many of the important allies, which had considerable clout in their respective states, had either left the NDA on their own or were compelled to leave because of PM Modi’s authoritarian streak. But now the BJP is back to wooing these estranged partners, perhaps because of the resurgent INDI-Alliance.
The political scenario is changing faster than expected. On the morning of Friday, March 8, the BJP appeared upbeat about its prospect of re-alliance with the BJD and the TDP but, by evening, the alliance talks had stalled. It was certainly ominous since BJP’s seat-sharing troubles in Maharashtra and Bihar had entered difficult phases.
Odisha BJP Chief Manmohan Samal said the alliance was never on the table when his team held talks with the BJP’s central leadership and asserted that the party was looking to form a government in the state. His statement ran opposite to the earlier statement of BJP MP Jual Oram, who had said, “There were discussions on the alliance among other issues; the party’s central leadership will make the final call.”
The problem with the BJP state unit is that it has been campaigning against the misgovernance of the BJD regime led by Chief Minister Navin Patnaik for the last five years. For the Central BJP leadership to now put them under pressure to have an alliance with BJD simply does not work. With what face BJP would the rank and file go to voters? The state BJP leadership is without an answer.
The BJD was a BJP ally for 11 years before 2009. And the BJD was supporting the BJP rule on several issues. The two were expected to come together in 2024 for both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. But there are serious differences on seat-sharing between the two parties, both for the Lok Sabha and the Vidhan Sabha elections.
It is a matter of great significance for PM Modi’s leadership. Even in the assembly elections held in November 2023, BJP state leaderships were sidelined to make Prime Minister Narendra Modi the party mascot on whose name elections were fought. Initially, there were murmurs of revolt, but the BJP leadership finally overcame this rebellion. But, now, when the BJP central leadership released the BJP’s first list of candidates, several leaders, including sitting MPs and ministers, quietly left the political scene after they were denied party tickets.
The Odisha BJP unit’s revolt against the Central BJP leadership is a signal that many BJP leaders do not like to be subjected to the whims and fancies of the Modi-Shah duo who have sole control of ticket distribution and seat-sharing. The authoritarianism practiced by the duo had become unbearable. More Odisha-like revolts will adversely impact the electoral prospects of both the BJP, and the NDA.
The BJP-TDP-JSP alliance in Andhra Pradesh also remained stuck. TDP MP and leader Ravindra Kumar confirmed that the three parties had in principle agreed for an alliance for the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls. The TDP was part of the NDA until 2018, when Chandrababu Naidu parted ways in protest against the Centre’s denial of special status to Andhra Pradesh. Differences in seat sharing for both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections persist among the three parties.
Troubles in seat-sharing talks among BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde), and NCP (Ajit Pawar) for Maharashtra remained pronounced throughout the week, just before a late-night talk with the BJP central leadership. It has been reported Saturday morning that a broader agreement has been reached. However, the failure to announce a seat-sharing deal indicated that differences were yet to be resolved.
In Bihar, seat-sharing talks were facing rough weather. It was reported that the differences had been almost resolved, but in absence of any announcement, it was more than obvious that everything was not yet settled. The BJP, JD(U), Upendra Kushwaha’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM), Jiten Ram Manjhi’s Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD) and two factions of Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), one led by Chirag Paswan and the other by his uncle Pashupati Paras, were demanding more seats than what they deserved.
Meanwhile, the SAD and BJP have been trying to get together again in Punjab. But it is a Catch-22. The SAD wants, amidst the farmers’ agitation, to justify their alliance with the BJP. The SAD had left NDA, protesting Modi’s three controversial farm laws in 2020, and it faces a dilemma. Several talks were held but with little progress. A similar situation prevails in Haryana due to farmers’ movement, where the BJP’s ally, Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), has so far maintained silence.
To conclude, though the BJP has been able to forge an alliance or a “re-alliance” with several parties both in the North and South, its allies cannot get even half of the 35 seats PM Narendra Modi expects from them, unless there are more allies. So far, the BJP has found several small political parties, including in the Northeast and South India. Political parties with grassroots clout have either parted ways or remain out of reach. Revolts and infighting have also impacted. The Modi-Shah authoritarianism is reaping what it sowed. The BJP may not even retain the ‘303’ it got in 2019, forget Modi’s ‘370’ brag. Their “bold ticket distribution” exercise, and big brotherly attitude in seat-sharing with allies have their fatal faultlines. (IPA Service)
The post BJP’s Seat-Sharing Exercise With Former NDA Allies Exposes Its Faultlines first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.
