German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has dissolved the Bundestag, setting new federal elections for February 23, 2025. This decisive action follows the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government and his subsequent loss in a vote of confidence.
The political crisis intensified on November 6, 2024, when Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leading to the disintegration of the three-party coalition comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP), and Greens. The coalition’s collapse left Scholz heading a minority government, unable to command a parliamentary majority. In an effort to regain stability, Scholz sought a vote of confidence on December 16, which he failed to secure, prompting the call for new elections.
President Steinmeier, emphasizing the necessity of a functional government during challenging times, stated, “In difficult times like now, stability requires an effective government and reliable majorities in parliament.” He proceeded with the dissolution after consulting party leaders and determining that forming a new majority within the current Bundestag was unfeasible.
This marks only the fourth instance in Germany’s post-war history where the Bundestag has been dissolved prematurely, underscoring the severity of the current political impasse. The upcoming elections are anticipated to reshape Germany’s political landscape, with recent polls indicating a shift in voter sentiment.
According to the latest INSA poll for “Bild am Sonntag,” the conservative CDU/CSU bloc leads with 31% support, despite a one-point decline. The SPD has gained one point, reaching 17%, while the Greens remain steady at 12%. The FDP has dropped to 4%, below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. Notably, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has seen a three-point decrease over the year, now standing at 20%. These figures suggest potential challenges in forming a stable government post-election, as traditional alliances may no longer secure a majority.
The dissolution of parliament and the scheduling of snap elections have prompted all major parties to expedite their campaign preparations. Key issues expected to dominate the electoral discourse include immigration policy, economic stability, and Germany’s ongoing support for Ukraine amid regional tensions. The recent terrorist attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, resulting in five fatalities, has further intensified debates on national security and counter-terrorism measures.
In the interim, Chancellor Scholz will continue to lead a caretaker government until a new administration is established. The forthcoming election will also be conducted under a reformed electoral law, aiming to reduce the Bundestag’s size from 735 to a maximum of 630 seats. This adjustment is intended to enhance legislative efficiency and address public concerns over governmental expenditure.
As Germany approaches this critical juncture, the international community watches closely, recognizing the implications for European stability and the broader geopolitical landscape. The forthcoming elections not only determine Germany’s domestic trajectory but also influence its role within the European Union and its stance on global issues.
The political uncertainty has also impacted Germany’s economic outlook. Business confidence indices have shown signs of decline, reflecting concerns over policy continuity and economic reforms. Analysts suggest that prolonged instability could affect investment decisions and economic growth in the short to medium term.
In response to the unfolding events, civil society organizations have called for peaceful and constructive electoral campaigns. There is a growing emphasis on addressing voter apathy and ensuring high voter turnout to legitimize the forthcoming government’s mandate.
