By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Having arrested Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader and Chief Minister of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal in an excise case on March 21, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) has now begun raids at Punjab Excise and Taxation Commissioner on March 27. The latest ED action is largely perceived as political in the state as it has come only after the BJP state chief Sunil Kumar Jakhar’s demand for a probe into Punjab’s excise policy as well. Similar to the action in Delhi, Punjab’s excise policy has been under ED’s scanner for quite some time now, but the actions being taken by Modi government just before the Lok Sabha election have made people to believe it political and AAP its victim. The more AAP governments are targeted, the stronger they are becoming with public sympathy.
Nevertheless, BJP is pinning its hope on a much-weakened AAP, especially after raids and arrests by Central investigating agencies. BJP leadership seems to believe that making AAP bereft of leadership by putting them into jail, would prevent AAP to offer any formidable challenge to BJP candidates not only in Delhi and Punjab where it is ruling presently, but also in Gujarat, Haryana, Goa or elsewhere AAP has made considerable inroads.
However, in Punjab, especially after the arrest of Kejriwal, people are more aggressively rallying behind AAP. BJP has cut a sorry figure since Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)has refused rejoining NDA. SAD had deserted BJP in 2020 in protest of PM Narendra Modi’s three controversial farm laws, which was unilaterally withdrawn by him in 2021, after a historical farmers’ protest. PM Modi had given assurances to agitating farmers which are still unmet, generating a feeling among farmers as cheated by false promises. They have started a fresh agitating since February 13 with their chief demand being a legal guarantee for MSP. Farmers are still angry with SAD led by Sukhbir Singh Badal, and hence the party preferred to regain its lost ground first. SAD is facing a great challenge in its way to offer any serious political challenge to the ruling AAP in the state.
It is worth recalling that SAD and BJP had contested Lok Sabha election 2019 as NDA allies. BJP had won 2 seats out of 13 in the state and bagged 9.74 per cent of votes. SAD had won 2 seats and was able to get 27.76 per cent of votes. Since, both the parties are contesting separately this time, they are likely to considerably lose their vote share. BJP had won Gurdaspur (with winning margin 82,459) and Hoshiarpur (48,530), while SAD had won Ferozpur (1,98,850) and Bathinda (21,772) Lok Sabha Constituencies. BJP’s votes share in the state reduced to 6.6 per cent and SAD’s to 18.38 per cent in 2022 Vidhan Sabha election.
Though AAP had won only Sangrur seat, from where Bhagwant Mann had won with a winning margin of 1,10,211 votes, who is now chief minister of Punjab after the Vidhan Sabha election 2022, the party has now become a dominant force in the state. AAP had won 92 seats out of 117, and bagged 42.01 per cent of votes. It is general belief in the state that the Centre under PM Narendra Modi has been creating hurdles to AAP government’s functioning which prevents the state government to smoothly run pro-people schemes. PM Modi’s image in the state is that he wants to bring Corporates to their farming sector which is not liked by the farmers.
As for the Congress is concerned, the party had won 8 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 with 40.58 per cent of vote share. However, in 2022 Vidhan Sabha election, it could not retain its power. It could win only 18 seats out of 117, while its vote share reduced to 22.98 per cent. Congress has been disintegrating since. Many Congress leaders joined BJP including its former Chief Minister. Despite organizational weakening, the Punjab Congress decided to go solo, since it is the chief opposition in the state, and BJP and SAD are not in a position to offer any formidable challenge in any of the Lok Sabha constituency.
AAP and Congress are thus chief contestants in the state, though they are part of the INDIA bloc at national level. SAD and BJP have been trying their best to make Punjab election a multi-cornered contest, and only time will tell if they will have any success in this regard. Four seats in the state are reserved for SCs, and there is a considerable support base of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) also. SAD and BSP had allied in 2022 election, but BSP has decided to go solo in the state.
Lok Sabha election in Punjab will be held in the last 7th phase, for which notifications will be issued on May 7. Last date for filing nomination is May 14 and date of poll is June 1. Every poll survey has predicted loss of NDA and SAD, and gain for INDIA bloc. In brief, political scenario in Punjab is advantage AAP, though the BJP is trying its best to strengthen itself through defection from Congress, and weakening the AAP by raiding and arresting its leadership. AAP is ahead in announcing its candidates for majority of seats before it was disrupted by raids and arrest of Kejriwal, while announcements from other parties are keenly awaited. (IPA Service)
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