By Sushil Kutty

The opposition INDI-Alliance is confident that unity among opposition parties will fetch easy victories against the Bharatiya Janata Party in the majority of the 543 constituencies in 2024 because in 2019, Modi’s victorious party could get only 38 percent of the total votes polled, while the remaining 62 percent were “cast against” the BJP and, therefore, fell in the Opposition kitty.

Opposition politicians keep trotting out this “theory” and believe all it will take to beat the BJP will be for the 62 percent to vote for the INDI-Alliance. This matter of fact theory is said with such camaraderie that it’s accepted without exception or objection. Spokespersons of opposition parties never explain exactly how even with 62 percent votes cast against it, the BJP-led alliance still wins and the BJP on its own clears the required majority mark?

The reality is except for a vicarious satisfaction, the theory does not give much to hope for. In both 2014 and 2019, the BJP won a clear majority – twice becoming the single-largest party in the Lok Sabha. In 2019 with 303 seats and nearly 38 percent vote-share, against 19.49 percent voting for the Congress. The BJP’s clear majority made it impossible for a post-poll Congress-led coalition to form the government.

But the Opposition never stopped sounding out the theory that the BJP had “lost” as the Opposition got “62 percent” while the BJP could get only “38 percent”. Is that a true reading of the data? Let’s count: Congress 19.49 percent; Trinamool Congress 4.07 percent; Bahujan Samaj Party 3.63 percent and the Samajwadi Party 2.55 percent and the then undivided Shiv Sena 2.10 percent.

The count actually runs up the Opposition score to over 36 percent. In fact, more than 650 political parties contested the 2019 general elections including some with exotic names like the “Pyramid Party” and the “Vikassheel Insaan Party”. All these parties got votes and adding their scores up will be revealing. The point is, counting votes that did not land in the BJP’s credit side is a revelation in itself.

That said, the majority of the main opposition parties got a vote share of less than 3 percent. And these included the DMK, which is a major partner in the INDI-Alliance along with the CPM and the CPI. If the BJP continues in the same vein as in 2019, the Opposition will not be able to oust Prime Minister Narendra Modi as it so dearly wants.

What the Opposition spokespersons are not getting it right is that voter turnout is never 100 percent. Voter turnout in 2019 was less than 70 percent, which means a little over 30 percent of the electorate did not turn up for voting. Another 8 percent and those who stayed away from the booths would have been 38 percent, almost as many as the numbers who voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party.

So, 38 percent voted for the BJP in 2019, and less than 38 percent for opposition parties including the Congress while a little over 30 percent chose not to cast their votes for whatever reasons. In fact, there were also those who chose NOTA. And it would be wrong to say that the 30 percent who did not turn out to vote would have all voted against the BJP, or would have all voted for an opposition party.

The important thing for the INDI-Alliance is to get its grassroots act right. Manage the booths at par with how the BJP does it. Above all, ensure that voters are motivated to step out and step up to vote – the 30-plus percentage of voters who did not turn up to vote in 2019. Efforts should be made to get them to vote in 2024. Nearly half the 62 percent had voted for today’s INDI-Alliance parties in 2019. Another 30 percent did not make the turnout. The challenge is to get as many of the 30 percent who did not turn up to vote in 2019 to make their vote count in 2024. (IPA Service)

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