Israel votes as Netanyahu faces wartime leadership verdict

Israelis vote on Tuesday in their first general election since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a closely fought challenge over his wartime leadership and the country’s political direction.

The election follows four years marked by Israel’s worst security failure, the devastating war in Gaza and military campaigns against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran. Final opinion polls indicate that neither Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious allies nor his opponents are assured of the parliamentary majority needed to govern.

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party, has emerged as Netanyahu’s principal challenger. Final surveys published by Israel’s main television broadcasters placed Yashar narrowly ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud, although the distribution of seats among smaller parties could determine which politician has a viable route to power.

Israel’s 120-member Knesset requires a majority of 61 seats to support a government. The final surveys projected approximately 50 seats for Netanyahu’s established bloc, with opposition parties also falling short of a majority without additional support. Palestinian-led parties could therefore become crucial to coalition calculations, despite resistance among some opposition leaders to relying on them.

Netanyahu, 77, has campaigned on his national security record, presenting the military operations undertaken during his term as evidence of his ability to confront regional threats. His critics accuse him of failing to prevent the October 7 attacks and of prolonging political divisions during the ensuing conflicts.

The 2023 assault killed about 1,200 people in Israel and resulted in 251 hostages being taken into Gaza. Israel’s subsequent offensive killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities, and destroyed extensive residential and civilian infrastructure. The war has also brought sustained scrutiny of Israel’s conduct and the humanitarian consequences for Palestinians.

Eisenkot, who commanded Israel’s armed forces from 2015 to 2019, joined the emergency government formed after the attacks but later left amid disagreements over Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza campaign. He has called for greater accountability and an official inquiry into the failures that allowed the assault to occur.

The former general has nevertheless taken positions on several security questions that overlap with Netanyahu’s, including opposition to Hamas retaining control of Gaza. Their differences have been more pronounced over government accountability, institutional trust and the influence of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners.

The prime minister has resisted demands for an independent state commission of inquiry into the October 2023 security breakdown. His government has also faced criticism over proposed changes to the judiciary, which triggered widespread protests and deepened divisions over the balance of power between elected politicians and the courts.

Military conscription is another significant issue. Ultra-Orthodox parties allied with Netanyahu have sought to protect exemptions for religious students, while opponents argue that the burden of military service should be shared more equally, particularly after prolonged fighting strained the armed forces.

Netanyahu is standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies. He also faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant concerning alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Israel rejects the court’s jurisdiction and disputes the allegations.

The opposition is divided among Eisenkot’s Yashar, an alliance associated with former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, and other secular and left-leaning parties. Netanyahu’s potential partners include the parties of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, alongside ultra-Orthodox factions.

The position of Palestinian citizens of Israel may be particularly important. Their parties could win enough seats to influence whether an alternative coalition is possible, but disagreements over their participation complicate efforts to assemble a government opposed to Netanyahu.

Coalition negotiations could prove particularly difficult because several opposition parties disagree over security policy, religious exemptions and cooperation with Palestinian-led factions. A fragmented result could leave Netanyahu heading a caretaker administration while rival parties attempt to negotiate a parliamentary majority.

About 7.3 million people are eligible to vote. Polling stations are scheduled to operate from 7am until 10pm local time, when broadcasters are expected to release exit polls. Official counting will continue afterwards, with final results expected to be published on November 4.

Parties must secure at least 3.25 per cent of valid votes to enter parliament. Once the results are confirmed, President Isaac Herzog will consult party representatives before selecting the lawmaker judged most likely to form a coalition. That nominee can receive up to 42 days to assemble a government.