China’s Xi Jinping, running the third five-year term as the all-powerful President of the People’s Republic, is 70. Vladimir Putin, aspiring to become Russia’s President for a fifth six-year term next year, is 71. The National People’s Congress chose Xi’s appointment without any opposition. The vote for Xi was 2,952 to 0. With Alexei Navalny, the most prominent Russian opposition leader, barred from contesting the forthcoming election due to prior criminal conviction, Putin is expected to romp home at the presidential election scheduled for March 15-17, 2024.
President Putin has dealt with as many as five US presidents since Bill Clinton. It will not be a surprise if Jinping and Putin serve as the Presidents of their respective countries for life, making their economic and military alliance against the US in the coming years much stronger. Such a development is unlikely to augur well for the unpredictable US and its allies, including Japan, Australia and India, in the coming years. The US military and diplomatic adventures in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region have brought Jinping and Putin together as ‘best friends’ since Russia attacked Ukraine in February, last year, inviting a host of US-led western sanctions against Russia. Notably, the sanctions totally failed to economically weaken Russia.
China stands strongly by Russia with increasing trade and economic partnership. Heavily nuclear-armed Russia, also a global leader in traditional defence manufacturing and export, does not need any outside military assistance to fight poorly armed states such as Ukraine. Russia is ready to fight any adversary that poses a threat to its geographical boundary. The US, on the other hand, seems to be instigating European countries bordering Russia to join the NATO alliance to protect themselves against a probable Russian attack. The American instigation is shaping a China-Russia axis and the bond between the two countries has tightened with the start of the Ukraine war.
Ukraine, fighting mainly with the help of massive US arms aid, is practically devastated. Putin’s near certain return as the next President of Russia could mean more trouble for Ukraine. The US military aid is unlikely to continue for long. A large number of US legislators are against funding Ukraine and Israel any more at the taxpayers’ cost. That said, Russia may next attack Finland, which became the 31st NATO member, earlier this year. Finland’s NATO membership added 1,300 km to the alliance’s border with Russia, prompting high tensions in the region.
Russia plans to convert Leningrad into a military district in response to NATO’s Finland accession although Putin has categorically said that Russia desires positive relations with NATO nations. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shifted Finland’s security concerns. The latter allocated funds worth $143 million to build barrier fences along the country’s 830-mile eastern border amid accusations of Russian build-ups.
Several European countries have lined up to join NATO, which is bound by a charter to take joint military action to protect any member facing external military aggression. All NATO members are required to agree on and accept a new entrant. For instance, the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership is currently blocked by Turkey, a NATO member.
Among Sweden’s prominent maritime boundaries with states in the region is Russia. Turkey’s decision on Sweden’s NATO inclusion hinges on the US Congress’ approval of its request to purchase F-16 fighter jets. Turkey also faces arms embargoes from Canada and other NATO allies. Among the countries aspiring to join NATO are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Serbia. The US plays a lead role in promoting NATO membership. Militarily, without strong US support, the30 other NATO members together are no match for Russian firepower.
It may be difficult to predict how far would the US go in support of an economically and militarily weak NATO member across the Atlantic in case of a war with Russia. The US is not best known for keeping its diplomatic stance with nations that either challenge its hegemony or are of little use to its strategic interests.
Once an enemy, Vietnam is now a US friend. China, an emerging friend for decades since the Nixon era, is now a strong military adversary. Pakistan has long lost its position in the US wish list. Washington has violated at will the pledge made before Moscow in the early 1990s, after East Germany merged with the West, that the NATO alliance would not expand in the former Soviet bloc. Interestingly, President Putin had the best relationship with President George Bush. It was never liked by the hawks in the US administration.
The US arms lobby always played a strong role in promoting America’s diplomatic bitterness with Russia. As a result, the US and NATO have continuously violated the assurance it made to Russia, three decades ago. The Ukraine war is clearly a result of NATO’s eastward expansion agenda.
President Joe Biden, regarded as one the country’s weakest presidents, is clearly under the influence and pressure of the arms lobby. In response, a China-Russia axis is fast taking shape, especially after the Xi-Putin summit earlier this year.
China has been working meticulously to expand its influence in west Asia, Africa and Latin America. Xi’s Russia visit came just days after China’s major diplomatic success bringing Saudi Arabia and Iran closer and restoring their diplomatic relations. Anti-American Iran is close to both Russia and China. Now, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, old US allies, too are getting closer to Russia and China. Russia and Gulf countries are working together for a political settlement in Syria.
The changing diplomatic priorities in West Asia, tilting towards China and Russia, serve a warning to the US, which, in turn, may be trying to use the NATO alliance to expand eastward to contain Russia and pose a threat to its geographical integrity. A return of the US-Russia Cold War with hawkish China standing firmly by Russia could be bad news for countries in the entire Europe-Asia region. Unfortunately, the US is ignoring the risk factor. Octogenarian Biden may not be quite aware of the possible consequences of playing dangerous wargames with Russia in Eastern Europe. (IPA Service)
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