Two and a half months have passed since Oct 7 and I have written before that the Hamas attack was to bring the Palestinian issue back to the attention of the world. That objective has been achieved, at the cost of a heavy toll of Palestinian deaths. The breach of international laws and unprecedented humanitarian crisis created by indiscriminate killing of more than 20000 innocent civilians, including more than 8000 children, widespread destruction of houses, schools, hospitals and infrastructure, brings almost worldwide condemnation against Israel.
The UN General Assembly passed a resolution asking for an immediate stop to the attacks and a ceasefire. As many as 200 countries voted “for” and only 8, the US and its cronies, voted against. President Joe Biden who is staunchly pro-Israel, feeling tremendous domestic and international pressure, was bound to send his emissaries to Israel to put pressure on Israel to soften the ferocity of its attack on Gaza and allow humanitarian aid.
Without the active backing of the US, its money and flow of armaments, Israel is not so strong. Yet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is adamantly and intensely pummeling Gaza. His political survival is dependent on continuing with the War on Gaza and the traumatized Israeli people do not want to hear about peace.
For them, Netanyahu’s war cries and resolve to finish Hamas is therapy. But Hamas is an ideology and matches that of oppressed Palestinians who are living in an open jail – Gaza. That’s why even 70% of the population in the West Bank, which is considered to be more liberal about Israel, strongly support Hamas and unequivocally sided with the Palestinians against Israeli attack and called for immediate ceasefire.
It is now commonly perceived that Netanyahu bears responsibility for much of this because he thought he could contain Hamas with brutal force and not have to deal with the core issues. In that the international communities, especially the western countries and the US, were also wrong. They presumed “we have Ukraine, Climate change, China and the Pacific Ring, so we thought this could be put on the back burner.”
Netanyahu will be gone ultimately. The only question is how much damage he will have done on the way out. Almost all the people of consequence in Israel have zero faith in him. What comes after him is unknowable. But there is a sense that there is need to reestablish the state of Israel. There needs to be new leadership, many of whom will come from the military because they are the most coherent and almost all of them are ‘two-staters ‘.
Many world leaders including the US support normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states. The Abraham Accord was rapprochement of sorts, but in practice it “was a disaster, because it disincentivised Israel from reaching a deal on the Palestinian question and left Palestinians feeling hopeless”. Now, there is a realization in the Arab world that the “Palestinian issues can no longer be ignored”.
The US government, under domestic pressure and International reactions against Israel’s brutal killing of innocent people and destruction of Gaza, is in violation of all international laws and grave war crimes have been committed. The sheer hypocrisy of the US providing Israel with money and armaments is astounding. The Biden administration’s decision to bypass Congress and approve the sale of nearly 14000 tank shells worth roughly $100 million from US stocks.
Still, the US has called for a two-state solution to end the decades of conflict. President Joe Biden has described the creation of Palestine as the only solution. A unified Palestinian entity is the stated US goal, especially as discussions arise on the fate of Gaza after the war. This unified entity would control both Gaza and West Bank, accept Israel’s existence and resume the Oslo negotiations with Israel.
Rafe Jabari, an eminent French-Palestinian political analyst, agreed that a “two-state solution should be presumed after the war ends. But Israel will be unwilling to relinquish control of the land it occupied”. He added that Israel will not be able to take out Hamas as “Hamas is an integral part of Palestinian society, they cannot eliminate Hamas”.
“Israel cannot rearrange the Palestinian house…Hamas will remain and what comes after Hamas will also be Hamas.”- said Al Raseq adding that Palestinians would not accept “the US or Israel or anyone else letting them who will govern them”. And because it is impossible to eradicate Hamas, it will have to be involved in any post war negotiation.
Meanwhile the PA govt. In the West Bank is seen by many Palestinians as in collusion with Israel and weak as it failed to advocate enough against Israel’s continuing settlement expansions to harassment of Palestinians on its own soil.
The US is still ramping up its push for the return of the PA in Gaza. But Hamas, even if defeated temporarily, would remain standing, a valiant hero for the Palestinians for fighting Israel and PA would appear weak, shamed for cooperating with Israel over the years.
Another problem is a two-state solution would mean relocating 200000 Israeli settlers, says Daniel Seidman, political advisor to British Foreign secretary David Cameron. Nearly 200,000 of 700,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank would have to be relocated to Israel to create a Palestinian state. If Israel has the will or capacity to relocate those settlers from West Bank and Jerusalem, a two-state solution is a viable option. “It is possible, If you can annex incrementally, you can occupy incrementally.”
One difficulty among ways to de-settle was that “isolated settlements are where the ideologically hardcore Zionists and violent settlers live – since Oct 7 more than 240 Palestinians have been killed, 3300 injured and more than 1000 people been forcibly evicted from the West Bank and East Jerusalem by the settlers. If the occupation does not end, it is going to be the end of Israel and the Palestinians. The only way to end the occupation is the border. “Israel was a broken piece of pottery before Oct 7. The war has smashed things to a smithereens.”
Presumably, the US will enlist the so called International community to help the Palestinian Authority get on its feet, both politically and economically. But Washington needs willing partners and no leader in Europe, Asia, Middle East, Latin America or Africa has evinced interest to help with either providing security in Gaza after the war or helping to reorganize the PA. It is almost certain that there will be a world conference in Geneva or Istanbul, where countries will pledge billions of dollars for the reconstruction of Gaza – most of which will never arrive.
And don’t expect foreign troops to materialize to keep peace in Gaza. The Europeans will resist out of fear. Egypt also will baulk and the rest of the Arab world lacks the capacity for such an important mission. One can imagine Turkish President Tyyip Erdogan to dramatically offer Turkish troops, claiming Muslim solidarity, but Israel will never agree to Erdogan’s aggrandizement at their expense. A dilated political agreement on a two-state solution is not for the immediate future. (IPA Service)
The writer is based in Boston, USA.
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