By Dr. Gyan Pathak
The impressive win of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and humiliating loss of the Congress conceals a disturbing ground reality for both the political parties, since the results hide a disturbing ground reality that they will have to face in the months to come during the Lok Sabha election 2024. BJP’s winning 163 seats by gaining 8.15 per cent more votes than the Congress resulting in great celebrations may soon give way to the harsh reality that it has actually lost 9.99 per cent of its vote share compared to Lok Sabha election 2019. Congress on the other hand could increase its vote share from 34.82 per cent in 2019 by 5.58 per cent to 40.40 in 2023.
It is worth recalling that the BJP had won 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, while Congress could win only one seat out of 29 from the state. Since, the BJP and the PM Narendra Modi heavily rely on their return to power for the third consecutive term after the Lok Sabah election 2014, the declining vote share of the party in comparison to rising vote share of the Congress, is likely to bring more challenges for them.
It is despite the fact that BJP was able to win as many as 163 seats in a 230-seat Madhya Pradesh Vidhan Sabha, frustrating all hopes of Congress of dislodging the ruling BJP, which could win only 66 seats. Only one seat went to Bharat Adivasi Party (BHRTADVSIP) and no one was able to win any seat. Thus the contest for Lok Sabha election 2024 will be chiefly between the BJP and the Congress, and the change of voting pattern will make their contest stiffer.
When we compare the present election results with the Vidhan Sabha election results 2018, BJP has increased its tally by 54 seats more, while the Congress lost 48 seats. The swing of votes in favour of BJP was 7.6 per cent which enabled the party for the impressive gain. BJP has bagged 48.55 per cent of votes in 2023 as against 58.54 per cent in Lok Sabha election 2019, which is a jolt to the party, and it would have to struggle much in the coming months to prevent further decline in its support base.
It should be noted that the Congress lost only 0.44 per cent of its vote share compared to 2018, a factor that may not subdue the Congress morale too much. It means that split in Congress in 2020, when 22 party MLAs defected to the BJP under leadership of Jyotiraditya Scindia, has only a little impact on the votes share of the Congress which bagged 40.40 per cent of votes in the present election. It is also worth noting that the Congress had a vote share of 34.82 per cent.
BSP is still the third most important political force in the state after the BJP and the Congress. It has bagged 3.40 per cent of votes thought it could win no seat. Its vote share in the Lok Sabah election 2019 was 2.4 per cent and in 2018 Vidhan Sabah election 5.01 per cent. BSP and GGP had contested the elections together. The BSP+ were responsible for loss of Congress candidates in over two dozen seats.
Congress had contested the election 2023 with the idea that the party was in resurgent mode and therefore could win this election and wrest power from the ruling BJP on its own. Hence, it not only avoided seat sharing arrangement with INDIA alliance partners, but had even resorted to disrespectful behavior with the Samajwadi Party. It is due to this reason, SP contested 71 seats, AAP 66 seats, JD(U) 10 seats, CPI 9 seats, and CPI(M) 4 seats which resulted into division of anti-BJP votes. Additionally, there was infighting within the party, especially between Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh camps. Even Central Congress leadership had discussed the matter of the so called arrogance of Kamal Nath under whose leadership the party contested the election. Kamal Nath was overconfident of winning the election, since there were signs of resurgence of the Congress especially after the Bharat Jodo Yatra of Rahul Gandhi last year. Now the humiliating loss to the party suggests that Congress is badly in need of unity within the party and in the INDIA alliance.
AAP got 0.54 per cent of votes, AIFB 0.01, CPI 0.03, CPI(M) 0.01, JD(U) 0.02, and SP 0.46 per cent of votes. AIMIM could share 0.09 per cent while others shared 5.52 per cent of votes. Nota votes were 0.98 per cent. It means that the Congress will remain the chief political party in opposition to counter the BJP in the forthcoming Lok Sabah election, and will need to strengthen its organization to take on RSS-BJP clan and their organizational strength, which turned the losing battle into an impressive win.
It is therefore obvious that the Lok Sabha election 2024 would bring stiffer contest between the BJP and the Congress, and both the parties would need greater unity within. INDIA alliance would need an early seat sharing arrangement, while the BJP would need to work very hard to reverse its declining vote share compared to Lok Sabha election 2019, if it wants to retain its 28 seats out of 29 it had won. (IPA Service)
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