The first five phases of polling for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are over by now, with only 115 seats out of the total of 543 remaining for voting in the next two phases. The results will be out on June 4. In the last few days, all top leaders of the BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have announced in public meetings and a series of interviews in TV channels and newspapers that the BJP has already crossed the magic figure of 272 — the majority mark — and in the next two phases, it will cross 300 plus. Home Minister Amit Shah has even mentioned the figure of 310-plus for BJP in the first five phases.
As regards the INDIA bloc, their own feedback from the first five phases has given them big hope that the polling trends are going against the NDA, and they are nursing the feeling that the NDA will lose majority. Rahul Gandhi is prominently declaring in poll meetings that the INDIA bloc is forming the new government at the centre after June 4.Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has talked of convening a meeting of the INDIA bloc parties after June 4 to decide on the next course of action. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin has invited on June 3 all INDIA bloc leaders to be in Delhi in the DMK office to attend the birth anniversary programme of his father M K Karunanidhi and also discuss the situation. Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said in her campaign that BJP’s Lok Sabha tally will not cross 200 seats in 2024 elections.
So what is the real scenario emerging on June 4? On Wednesday, the well-known U.S. political scientist and risk consultant Ian Bremmer told NDTV in an interview that BJP will get between 295 and 315 seats, meaning BJP will get majority on its own. Lot of global companies and investment banks operating in India have carried out surveys in the last few weeks. Whatever I have been able to gather from my sources in the financial sector, the initial reports were highly favourable to the BJP; however, after the fifth phase, the updated reports talked of uncertainty. My sources say that a top US investment company has indicated to its headquarter the possibility of a hung Lok Sabha, but eventually leading to a weak government led by Narendra Modi.
Among the top investment analysts who know India, I have faith in Ruchir Sharma, who has extensively travelled in Indian districts during the current poll campaigning. I agree with few of his observations which I also noted during my travels in the southern states as also in Uttar Pradesh in the last few months. First, there is no wave: neither in favour of Narendra Modi, nor in favour of the opposition. This is a major positive factor for INDIA bloc, because both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls witnessed a big Modi wave.
Secondly, local and regional issues dominated more in the states, mainly in the southern and eastern states. In the northern states, the emotive issues including Ram Mandir are present among the voters, but other live issues like unemployment, poor health facilities, high prices of essential commodities are also being taken into consideration. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent speeches aimed at demonising the Muslims, and terming the Congress as anti-Hindu party, may not succeed in full consolidation of Hindu votes in the remaining 115 seats as desired by the PM and the BJP.
The third point is my own. Regional parties opposing BJP as part of the INDIA bloc have done much better in the first five phases of Lok Sabha elections. It is the Congress which failed to take full advantage of the anti-BJP mood in the constituencies where the Party is fighting the BJP on behalf of the INDIA bloc. Lack of adequate financial resources affected the organisational preparation of the Congress against the BJP’s financial and organisational muscle power.
Let us look back at the post Lok Sabha election scenario after 1996 and 2004 polls. In 1996, the BJP got 161 seats and the Congress got 140.BJP led by Atal Behari Vajpayee formed the Government at the Centre which fell after 13 days. The opposition led by the Janata Dal formed the government then but it also fell in 1998. In 2004 polls, the Congress got 145 and the BJP 138. The UPA was formed by the Congress and the UPA lasted two terms under the prime ministership of Dr. Manmohan Singh.
As regards 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the scenario is a bit different; it can not be a repeat of either the 2004 or the 1996 post poll scenario. The moot issue is how many seats the BJP will lose out of 303 the party got in 2019 polls. The BJP got maximum in 2019 under Modi wave; its tally has certainly to go down and its down number will decide the course of formation of the next government. The BJP has to lose at least 80 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls for facilitating the formation of an alternative government at the centre. Any BJP tally over 240 will facilitate the formation of a government by the NDA led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Let me explain. After 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had 282 seats and the NDA had a total of 336; meaning the other NDA parties together got 54 seats altogether. In the 2019 elections, the BJP got 303 seats and the NDA seats totalled 353 meaning the non-BJP NDA parties got 50 seats altogether. In 2024 elections, the number of NDA partners will go down but it can be between 25 to 30.So this figure will have to be added to the BJP tally to arrive at the total NDA figure.
If BJP gets 220 or less and the NDA figure of 25 to 30 is added that comes to 245 to 250 — 22 below the majority figure of 272. BJP-led NDA may be the largest alliance and invited by the President to form the government and face confidence vote. The support from the other parties like YSRCP and BJD will be crucial then. Both these parties may get a total of 20 seats, if not more. These parties support may help the NDA government to continue, if Narendra Modi wants such a government to run.
But for INDIA bloc, the continuing fighting between the PM and the Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik in the present election campaign gives a ray of hope that Naveen may consider snapping ties with the BJP and extend support to the INDIA bloc, if there is a hung Lok Sabha. A bit of lobbying with Naveen by the INDIA bloc leaders, especially M K Stalin and Mamata Banerjee, will be needed. As regards Jagan Mohan Reddy, he will decide his strategy after assessing the final results. He will see which party is the real threat to his YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh.? Certainly BJP-TDP combination will emerge as a bigger threat to his political domination. In national politics, Jagan can never be in the same camp with Chandrababu Naidu, who is now in NDA. Jagan has every reason not to support NDA after Lok Sabha elections.
So taking a total view, INDIA bloc has still some chances of coming to power after 2024 Lok Sabha elections. For ensuring that, the BJP’s tally has to be brought down to the level of 220; the Congress should do its utmost to annex seats from the BJP in the constituencies the party is fighting; and lastly, the regional leaders of INDIA bloc should be in touch with Jagan and Naveen. Only then, the INDIA bloc can wait for June 4 with some bout of optimism. (IPA Service)
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