Vladimir Panov, Rosatom’s head of Arctic development, said the increase would establish a new record for cargo travelling through the Arctic corridor rather than originating from projects within the region. He also expects total freight movements along the route to surpass 40 million tonnes this year.
The projections underline growing commercial use of the northern passage, although independent shipping assessments suggest a more cautious outlook for transit volumes. The Centre for High North Logistics estimated that completed voyages had carried approximately 3.7 million tonnes by the end of September, with additional sailings still under way.
Panov said the route offered advantages in journey length and shipping security. During the summer and autumn navigation season, he estimated that the passage between Asia and Europe was 30% shorter than travelling through the Suez Canal, potentially reducing vessel charter costs and accelerating cargo deliveries.
“The Northern Sea Route has two competitive advantages – efficiency and security,” Panov said, arguing that rising tonnage demonstrated increasing interest among cargo owners.
His forecast distinguishes transit shipments from the much larger overall cargo flows, which include oil, liquefied natural gas and other commodities transported from Arctic production facilities. That distinction matters because higher total traffic does not necessarily indicate equivalent growth in international shipments between Asia and Europe.
Rosatom operates Russia’s nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet and has responsibilities for developing the route and supporting safe navigation. Icebreaker assistance, navigational services and the availability of suitable vessels remain important considerations for operators assessing Arctic passages.
Independent figures provide a benchmark for the corporation’s expectations. The Centre for High North Logistics identified 104 completed transit voyages by 30 September, already exceeding the 103 recorded throughout 2025. Its assessment, based principally on vessel tracking information, put their combined cargo at 3.7 million tonnes, compared with approximately 3.2 million tonnes during the previous full season.
The centre identified another 45 potential voyages either inside the route or already under way at the September cut-off. It said completed transits could approach 150 during the season, while cargo might exceed 4.5 million tonnes. Those estimates were provisional, rather than final totals, and differed from Rosatom’s more ambitious projection.
Tankers accounted for the largest identified cargo segment. Twenty-two eastbound tanker voyages carried an estimated 2.1 million tonnes, mainly crude oil, while 13 eastbound bulk carrier voyages transported approximately 1.1 million tonnes. The analysis also identified westbound voyages undertaken partly to reposition vessels rather than deliver loaded cargo.
Container shipping is another area of expansion. Panov said the number of container transit shipments would rise to 46 in 2026 from 23 in 2025, with international containerised transit cargo expected to exceed 600,000 tonnes. These figures are Rosatom projections and are not directly interchangeable with independent counts of individual container ship voyages.
Rosatom director general Alexei Likhachev had separately forecast overall cargo traffic above 40 million tonnes, representing an increase of roughly 20% over the preceding year. The corporation recorded approximately 37 million tonnes of freight along the route in 2025, making the new target a substantial increase in annual throughput.
Despite shorter sailing distances on some routes, Arctic navigation faces limitations absent from conventional shipping lanes. Ice conditions vary across the season, while vessel suitability, insurance, escort arrangements and unpredictable delays can influence whether a shorter geographical route produces lower overall transport costs.
The Centre for High North Logistics found that only four confirmed voyages by September had linked Asia and Europe without Russian endpoints, compared with one throughout 2025. Most identified cargo movements remained associated with Russian exports and traffic connecting Russian ports with Asian destinations.
The independent assessment also found that larger vessels contributed to the increase in traffic. Average deadweight per completed voyage rose from about 60,000 tonnes in 2025 to approximately 75,000 tonnes this year. This means growth in vessel capacity cannot be interpreted solely as an increase in the number of ships using the Arctic passage during the season.
Its September assessment recorded 51 eastbound and 53 westbound transits. The combined deadweight capacity of vessels completing those passages reached approximately 7.8 million tonnes, a measure of vessel carrying capacity rather than the actual weight of cargo transported.
Follow Arabian Post
Select Arabian Post as your preferred source on Google and MSN News for trusted business news and Arab politics and updates.
