By K Raveendran
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has wielded its regulatory wand, imposing a ban on exit polls between April 19 and June 1. During this period, media outlets are forbidden from publishing predictions or survey results. The rationale behind this prohibition is clear: to prevent undue influence on voters during the crucial 48-hour window leading up to the conclusion of each phase of polling.
Media opinion polls are perceived as having the potential to sway undecided voters. The assumption is that if voters perceive a clear winner, they might jump on the bandwagon or, conversely, stay home, believing their vote won’t matter. Thus, the ban on exit polls aims to level the playing field, ensuring that no undue advantage is gained through premature predictions.
Level-playing field in Indian elections remains a closely guarded myth. Whether it is about financial resources, application of the model code of conduct (MCC) to political parties and their leaders, or holding violators of various norms accountable, the Election Commission’s responses have been found lacking in both resolve and adherence, The fatigue of a such a long election seems to have affected the commission more than anybody else.
Media outlets have been religiously following the commission’s edict not to air or publish opinion polls. Yet, paradoxically, key political figures—Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge included—have been unabashedly predicting seat tallies. Shah confidently declared that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had already secured 310 seats after the fifth phase, with an ambitious target of crossing 400 seats by the end of the polls. Modi himself remains unwavering, envisioning an NDA victory that surpasses even their 2019 performance. But why this confidence? And how does it square with the ban on exit polls?
The commission seems to believe that political leaders do not have any credibility and as such their claims need not be taken seriously enough to think that these will influence the decision of voters in the remaining round of polling. Apparently, it credits media units with greater authenticity for their observations and therefore the risk of their opinion polls influencing voter behaviour is much greater. There is no other explanation for the commission preferring to look away when politicians are flouting its norms under its very nose.
Amit Shah prophecies that his party’s victory margin and seats will both increase. “As for the absence of a wave, let me tell you I have been observing polls since 1975, since I was very young, and have been a student of political processes. It is the first time that we are seeing a positive vote of this scale, an endorsement of development. Youth everywhere are discussing schemes like Digital India, Startup India, share market growth. There is also excitement among farmers about welfare and empowerment schemes. Most importantly, there is an army of over 60 crore beneficiaries which is standing strongly with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This will ensure BJP’s victory”.
Modi has declared that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party in the south, as he remained unwaveringly confident that his NDA alliance will cross 400 seats when election results come out on June 4. “Phir ek baar modi sarkar. Aur chaar June 400 paar,” Modi said in an interview.
Not to be left behind, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has claimed that the INDIA bloc already has enough number under its belt to dislodge the Modi government. In fact, he does not credit the BJP with more than 200 seats. As far as the Election Commission it does not matter if this is wishful thinking or the result of data-based analysis; it does not see the bid to influence undecided voters as a breach.
The ‘opinion’ expo does not end here. Self-styled election strategist Prashant Kishor, who once worked closely with Modi and the BJP, suggests that Modi’s leadership could propel the BJP to victory, possibly surpassing their 2019 tally. His analysis acknowledges unfulfilled aspirations but dismisses widespread public anger against Modi. Kishor’s perspective adds nuance to the narrative, emphasizing that voter sentiment is multifaceted and cannot be reduced to mere numbers. Indeed, a strategic explanation in form and content.
Kishor’s endorsement has invited the wrath of Congress party, which accuses the strategist of promoting the BJP cause through his action. But most importantly, the Election Commission finds nothing amiss. Perhaps it is an opportunity for enterprising media outlets to draw the clues and publish their opinions as well. After all, it is one man’s opinion against another man’s and therefore a licence against regulatory clamp down. (IPA Service)
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