If indications from the think-tanks closer to the BJP are to be believed, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team of advisers are processing a number of options to ensure that the newly set upfront of the anti-BJP parties – INDIA – does not get the advantage of the joint campaign and seat-sharing arrangement formulate data the just concluded Bengaluru conclave of the 26 opposition parties.
Whatever the PM Modi and the BJP president JP Nadda said in public about the significance of the second opposition conclave after Patna, the BJP leadership is rattled. Exercises have started at all levels to assess the impact of the decisions of INDIA on the electoral chart of the BJP, whichis being updated from time to time taking into account the latest developments.
The saffrons are worried at the trends noted by the poll analysts recently about the political mood in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattishgarh, four months before the state assembly elections. In these three states, the seats in Lok Sabha total at 65. Out of these 65 seats, in the 2019general elections, the BJP got a staggering 61seats while the Congress managed a miserable 3. Now reports about the intensive campaigning carried out by both the BJP and the Congress indicate that the Congress is doing extremely well in Rajasthan and Chattishgarh compared to the BJP. Only in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan is ahead of the Congress leader Kamal Nath, but in this state also, the gapis narrowing. The big achievement of the Congress has been a big breakthrough in the constituencies dominated by the Scindia scion Jyotiraditya. The Congress organistions in all three states are energised and Kamal Nath is waging a determined battle to unseat Shivraj, a goal that seems to be within the ambit of the possible.
The likely reverses of the BJP in the three state assemblies are sure to give a big momentum to the Congress, which is showing signs of maturity in dealing with its partners in the coalition platform INDIA. The Congress is planning its second phase of Bharat Jodo Yatra from East to West starting from September. This new Yatra will extensively cover Maharashtra and Gujarat in this second phase. Both the states are crucial for the BJP for the2024Lok Sabha elections. IN 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP got 26 out of 26 in Gujarat and 23 out of the total of 48 seats in Maharashtra.
BJP cannot afford to lose many seats in Gujarat. But that possibility may arise in 2024 elections after the coming Yatrain Gujarat. The anti-incumbency is growing in the state, which has been under BJP rule for nearly three decades. A key role will be played by a possible seat-sharing arrangement between the Congress and the AAP as a part of the decision at the Bengaluru conclave, as a result of which the BJP seats may seriously come down. Both the Congress and the AAP will have a win-win situation in Gujarat if this understanding is arrivedat. However, the BJP can’t wait for this seat-sharing arrangement to go through to the peril of the saffron party’s total dominance in Lok Sabha from Gujarat.
Same is the situation in Uttar Pradesh, which has got 80 seats in Lok Sabha. In the 2019 elections, BJP got more than 60 seats. Samajwadi Party is them ainrival .SP attended the Bengaluru conclave and is a part of INDIA. The party has big problems with its INDIA partner Congress about respective strengths of the two parties. Congress is hoping that it is getting back its support base of Dalits and Muslims once again. Both SP and the Congress are making efforts to poach Dalits from their home turf of BSP. There is conflict of interest also in the state between the two partners of INDIA.
But still, efforts have been initiated to ensure a seat-sharing arrangement between the SP and the Congress before the Lok Sabha elections. This will be time consuming and full of hurdles. But if it succeeds, that will give a big jolt to BJP ambitions of getting the maximum number of seats from UP. In other Hindi-speaking states, BJP is expected to lose heavily in 2024. However, in UP, the BJP cannot afford to lose. So it is fatal for BJP to allow INDIA to make a success of its seat-sharing formula, which will take a number of months from now to fructify.
Some BJP experts feel that time is the essence of victory or defeat and that INDIA should not be allowed to consolidate and be in a position to implement its ‘sankalp’. INDIA has only to gain in the coming days and it should not be allowed to fulfil its programme in full, as per the BJP think tanks. PM Modi has to strike INDIA when the time is right, the thinking goes. In 2004, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee suddenly announced the Lok Sabha elections in April-May from the scheduled September-October. The BJP was under the spell of ‘India Shining’. Vajpayee lost, surprising even some of the opposition leaders, including those in the Congress.
In 1999, the Lok Sabha elections were announced by the Prime Minister A B Vajpayee only a few months after the victory in Kargil war. The NDA and the BJP got advantage of that in the 1999elections. In 2019, the Lok Sabha elections were held as per schedule. There was no big wave before February that year. But in February, the Pulawama mass acreand the Balakot strike happened. Narendra Modi extracted the advantage of nationalist sentiments of the common citizens in the Lok Sabha polls weeks after.
Right now,if the Lok Sabha polls were to be held as scheduled, it would be April and May in 2024. In 2019, Lok Sabha polls were held in seven phases from April 11toMay 19. The results were announced on May 23. BJP got 303 seats, unprecedented in the history of the party. Narendra Modi became the darling of the BJP supporters once again. Eight months are left for the scheduled Lok Sabha elections in April-May 2024. What is the new trump card that the PM, the master strategist of NDA along with Amit Shah, is holding on to his chest? Can he allow INDIA to go on gaining strength without any hurdles? That is the billion-dollar question of the Indian politics no was the next Lok Sabha polls approach. (IPA Service)
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