By Gyan Pathak
Potential threat to continuance of the BJP rule under Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the 2024 Lok Sabha election tends to surge despite the BJP trying to reenergize the NDA and reaching out to even non-NDA political parties, to widen and strengthen NDA. PM Modi is also trying to get outside support from the political parties that cannot join the NDA, such as YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, and BJD in Odisha. It would be chiefly because, the INDIA alliance is gaining strength faster than expected, and the anticipated loss to BJP not likely to be offset by the support from political parties remaining outside the INDIA alliance.
BJP seems to be losing its seats from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, North East, and Karnataka, apart from minor losses from other states too. BJP’s trying to form alliance with even minor political parties having little influence shows some truth is such anticipation of loss, which is far more than it could be offset by the YSRCP and BJD.
In 38-party NDA at present, BJP had won 303 seats in the Lok Sabha election 2019, 8 other parties had won only 9 seats, 15 other political parties participated could win no seats at all. It would be shocking for BJP enthusiasts to known that 10 of the political parties in the present NDA did not even participate in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. NDA had won 353 seats in 2019, but has been reduced to 332 in 2023, showing its declining political fortune.
BJP’s loss is estimated to over 100 seats, which the present NDA partners are obviously not able to offset. It is in this backdrop, PM Modi and BJP are reaching out to non-NDA non-India political parties, especially those that are of some consequence and for regional political considerations they cannot join the NDA. However, the reliance on non-NDA political parties YSRCP and BJD could not come for rescue since they had won only 22 and 12 Lok Sabha seats in 2019.
As for BRS is concerned, it is not yet in INDIA alliance, the party leader K Chandrashekhar Rao has categorically said that he would not support the BJP or could not be part of NDA. In 2019, BRS, formerly TRS had won 9 seats. By default, opposition INDIA alliance would be real beneficiary of the party’s position.BRS is expected to take position against the BJP after Lok Sabha polls.
No doubt opposition INDIA alliance is gaining strength, as time passes by, especially afterCongress leader Rahul Gandhi got a stay by the Supreme Court of India on his conviction.. It has made the Congress stronger with the morale of the party’s rank and file increased on account of the boldness of Rahul Gandhi who refused to apologize for his Modi surname remark, even in the Supreme Court of India.
Not only Congress ranks and file have found Rahul Gandhi a stronger and matured leader, but also leaders from other political parties, both in ruling and opposition alliance. He is strongly positioned now against PM Narendra Modi. RJD leader Lalu Yadav and Congress leader from Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot have openly said that Rahul Gandhi is PM candidate during the Lok Saba 2024 election battle.
There is also no doubt that Rahul Gandhi has emerged as a bigger and more matured political leader of the Congress, especially after his Bharat Jodo Yatra. His political acumen had been put to test in the Karnataka Vidhan Sabha election in May 2023, which brought humiliating defeat to the BJP which used star political campaigner not less than PM Narendra Modi. It has shattered the BJP belief that PM Modi is invincible, and emboldened the political parties in opposition that there is a possibility to defeat BJP despite PM Modi.
The Congress party as a whole, and also Rahul Gandhi, have also been seen in the recent times to shed their inhibitions in becoming equal partners to other smaller political parties, which have already brought dividend. The efforts of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar to bring anti-BJP political party on single platform turned out to be fruitful only because of this. In the very first meeting of the alliance at Patna, 16 political parties agreed to offer joint opposition to the BJP, which increased to 26 in the second meeting at Bengaluru. Congress leadership was seen more than willing to work with them to defeat allegedly communal and divisive politics of BJP led by PM Narendra Modi. It was a step leap forward with christening the alliance ‘INDIA’.
As against the NDA, INDIA alliance has more political parties with greater regional strength than the NDA partners. Such a situation is certainly a potential political problem to BJP and PM Modi. Moreover, their presumption that several regional political parties, especially TMC in West Bengal, SP in Uttar Pradesh, AAP in Delhi, and BRS in Telangana, though inimical to BJP, were not in a position to tolerate Congress in general and Rahul Gandhi in particular, has come out as wrong.
TMC leader Mamata Banerjee herself proposed the name of the opposition alliance and coming forward with greater vigour to defeat PM Modi and BJP’s divisive communal politics. SP leader in Uttar Pradesh is going to participate in Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra in the second phase in the state. AAP leader has not only thanked Rahul Gandhi and Congress for voting against Centre’s Services Bill against Delhi, but the party spokespersons have said that they are looking forward for seat sharing arrangement with Congress in Gujarat.
The hurdles so far felt on seat sharing among the INDIA alliance partners are not so insurmountable, thanks to more mature political behaviour of the Congress leadership and Rahul Gandhi. Third meeting of the INDIA alliance scheduled on August 31 and September 1 in Mumbai may bring more clarity in the formula for seat sharing arrangement.
A divided opposition have been the real advantage in electoral battle for the BJP and PM Modi, which is set to undergo a sea change with opposition unity and a foreseeable one-on-one contest they are likely to offer in majority of seats. BJP’s trying to rouse communal frenzy among Hindu voters may not work in their favour in 2024 general election, since it works only when opposition is divided.(IPA Service)
The post Potential Threat To BJP To Surge In The Coming Months first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.
