Matein Khalid It is now all but certain that the Federal Reserve will cut the US overnight borrowing rate, currently 4.25 percent, by at least 25 basis points at its September 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The labour market is losing momentum, while tariff-driven inflation has yet to show up in the Consumer Price Index. The Trump White House has ramped up pressure on Fed Chair […]
Matein Khalid Two fallen angel megacaps in a rich market now that July CPI proved a non-event, I see a beautiful opportunity to scale up my long Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Eli Lilly (ELY) to former darlings of Mr. Market who have been sandbagged by adverse events in the last two weeks. My rationale? Palo Alto Networks (PANW) was slammed down to 165 after its $25 […]
Matein Khalid There are two gems in global finance that I believe can make serious money if purchased at the right price this autumn. Their high beta means a 16% hit if the S&P has the 10% index correction that Morgan Stanley projects. The best thing at TPG for me is CEO Jon Winkelried, who I first met in Goldman Sachs’ cathedral of money at Peterborough Court […]
Matein Khalid While Marjan Island day trips with Amore mio Donna Farah hardly makes me nostalgic for my singleton era visits to Vegas and college boy trips to the odious Trump Plaza/Taj Mahal casinos in Atlantic City, I have no problem taking a flutter on Wynn when it traded at 12X earnings since the free cash flow yield is a more reliable proxy for a money making […]
Matein Khalid Morgan Stanley has evolved into one of the world’s preeminent wealth management franchises and dramatically reduced its exposure to volatile securities trading in a major strategy shift under its former CEO James Gorman. His acquisitions of E-Trade, Eaton Vance and the Smith Barney brokerage platform from Citigroup have enabled its client assets to grow to a colossal $6.5 trillion and provide the anchor for secular […]
Matein Khalid I had flagged Nvidia in this platform as a must own chip stock on the eve of the AI revolution just before its historic Q2 earnings call in May 2023. Fast forward two years and Nvidia earnings are up 10X while its share price is up 8X since my post as it flirts with a $4 trillion market cap that awaits if the shares trade at […]
Matein Khalid Sri Lanka is one of the most fascinating and drop-dead gorgeous countries I have ever visited, the island once known as Serendip by ancient Umayyad Arab sailors/ruby merchants and Ceylon by the colonial Dutch and British who once ruled the island, an emerald tear drop in the Indian Ocean. I have a special bond with Sri Lanka because my late mother, an artist, used to […]
Matein Khalid Both Israel and the US were careful not to target Iran’s oil export terminal at Kharg Island, a major reason why Brent crude trades at 68 and not 100. It is ironic that Iran’s oil output is now 5.1-MBD (this figure includes condensates and gas to liquids), its exact amount in 1978, the last year the Shah ruled from his Peacock Throne. There is no […]
Matein Khalid My generation were teenagers in the late 1970’s and thus passionate fans of Sweden since Abba dominated the Top of the Pops (God, how I hated the ghastly Dancing Queen since every girl in high school thought this syrupy pop tune was written specifically for her!) and Björn Borg dominated Centre Court at Wimbledon as the Men’s Champion until the trophy was wrested from him […]
Matein Khalid The past decade dramatically illustrates the peril of trusting paper money as a store of value in a political system designed to pivot recklessly towards deficit financing and deliberate debasement of the world’s reserve currency. The US national debt is now $37 trillion and the annual budget deficit is now $2 trillion or 125% of GDP. Add political gridlock in Washington, violent migrant riots in […]
Matein Khalid It is ironic that Brent crude collapsed from its $78 high on the New York Merc to as low as 66.80 in early Singapore trading even though Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched a missile strike on America’s largest military base in the Gulf in Qatar. This retaliatory strike was polite, measured and apologetic with advance notice given to Centcom to avoid any US military casualties. Trump […]
Matein Khalid Operation Midnight Hammer was a spectacular military success though it will take 60 years more for the top secret CIA files on Trump’s rendezvous with history at Fordo to be declassified even though I hope Centcom and the Pentagon generals will release their BDA (Battle Damage Assessments) in the next two weeks to reinforce their claim that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear assets beneath the mountain […]
Matein Khalid The India-Pakistan war in May and the Iran-Iraq war that rages as I write only reinforces my conviction that wars will be won or lost via a access to the latest missile air defense, stealth fighter jet platforms, ballistic hypersonic missile, power projection capabilities and state of the art ISR (intelligence surveillance reconnaissance) defense technologies. A nation without these capabilities is akin to a Stone […]
Matein Khalid The deployment of 30 US air-fueling tankers to the Middle East strongly suggests that Trump has decided to escalate the war with Iran with an American led strike on the underground nuclear site at Fordo. Since the B-2 Spirit super bombers would need tankers to refuel their fighter escort. Ali Khamenei’s tweet threatening America was precisely the wrong message to send to Trump at a […]
Matein Khalid There is precious little good news to emerge from the Middle East since the IDF launched its spectacular blitzkrieg and leadership decapitation strike against Iran’s nuclear asset and military/intelligence elite last Friday. This weekend was grim with Iran’s ballistic missile strike on Haifa and Tel Aviv with even a real miss on the IDF command and control complex in Kirya. Netanyahu’s boast that he would […]
Matein Khalid I had analyzed SpaceX as a potential 10X winner in the Dubai media circa late 2020 when it traded at a mere $46 billion in the private market and even invited a number of close friends in an investor syndicate after sourcing shares from the Founders Fund in San Fran via the secondary market. Shakespear’s Henry V praised the English longbow archers who won him […]
Matein Khalid I have had a neurological soft corner for Wall Street’s alternative asset manager stocks ever since I resisted the come hither importunings of multiple Morgan Stanley (MS) managing directors before the firm sold its private wealth division in the DIFC to Credit Suisse. Everyone of these MS honchos wanted me to subscribe to the Blackstone IPO in the summer of 2007 at $32. They assured […]
Matein Khalid Dr. Copper supposedly boasts a doctorate in economic forecasting because its price predicts inflection points in the global industrial cycle and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is the largest listed copper miner on earth, with gold and oil drilling businesses as ancillary SBUs. Dr. Copper is not exactly my fav prognosticator of the economic cycle but I do notice a mini price breakout of the red metal on […]
Matein Khalid My macro crystal ball begins to vibrate ominously whenever a perma-bull talking head joins the Squawk Box on CNBC, my spiritual, philosophical and financial lodestar in life and La Dolce Vita of the mercati monetari globali. After all, our beautiful business began as a money lender’s bench in Renaissance Florence 600 years ago and if we ever ran out of cash, they ruptured our banco […]
Matein Khalid While I never ever found diamonds in any coal mine, the truth is I never looked since I never really believed that De Beers/James Bond propaganda that diamonds are forever. In fact, my industry sixth sense tells me that diamonds are forever – worthless. I guess, my only investment in diamonds was a romantic one when I proposed to my then GF and now proud […]
Matein Khalid The fallout from the Moody’s downgrade is unfolding exactly as I guesstimated it would in my Sunday afternoon post. The 10 Year US Treasury note yield is now 4.54% and 30 year money is now 5.02%. So my 2/10 and 2/30 US Treasury note bear steepener strategy is oozing green – so far. Gold is also a classic haven from the fiscal Frankenstein that is […]
Matein Khalid While I was not surprised by Moody’s decision to cut the sovereign credit rating of the US from Aaa to Aa1 since I have done my best to warn my friends in this post about the King Dollar’s vulnerable underbelly on debt/deficits, I am surprised that the credit rating agencies is willing to risk the wrath of Trump White House with this move. After all, […]
Matein Khalid The US Treasury bond market is unnerved by Powell’s reluctance to cut rates at the May FOMC and increasing short bets on long duration Uncle Sam IOUs by the world’s biggest hedge funds. This is the reason the 2-year Treasury note yield, the single security most sensitive to changes in expectation of US central bank monetary policy, has risen 15 basis points this week to […]
Matein Khalid I was neurologically programmed to disbelieve every communique issued by the Indian or Pakistani military in the wartime and thus missed the spectacular 50% rise in the shares of AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, a Shenzhen listed vendor of the $39 million J-10 fighter jet that downed three Indian $250 million Rafales, a MiG-29 and Sukhoi-30 while French, British and US intelligence told sources in Reuters, Bloomberg, […]
