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Matein Khalid

Matein Khalid While I was not surprised by Moody’s decision to cut the sovereign credit rating of the US from Aaa to Aa1 since I have done my best to warn my friends in this post about the King Dollar’s vulnerable underbelly on debt/deficits, I am surprised that the credit rating agencies is willing to risk the wrath of Trump White House with this move. After all, […]

Matein Khalid The US Treasury bond market is unnerved by Powell’s reluctance to cut rates at the May FOMC and increasing short bets on long duration Uncle Sam IOUs by the world’s biggest hedge funds. This is the reason the 2-year Treasury note yield, the single security most sensitive to changes in expectation of US central bank monetary policy, has risen 15 basis points this week to […]

Matein Khalid I was neurologically programmed to disbelieve every communique issued by the Indian or Pakistani military in the wartime and thus missed the spectacular 50% rise in the shares of A​VIC Chengdu Aircraft, a Shenzhen listed vendor of the $39 million J-10 fighter jet that downed three Indian ​$250 million Rafales, a MiG-29 and Sukhoi-30 while Frenc​h, British and US intelligence told sources in Reuters, Bloomberg, […]

Matein Khalid The smoke signals from Geneva came even faster than the one in the Vatican that announced the arrival of Pope Leo XIV on the world stage. If the US-China trade marathon was a Bollywood movie, Scott Bessant would be​ ​dancing wet and wild with the Chinese Vice Premier Lifeng in their Jet d’Eau or kowt​owing on those little abraas that criss-cross the Rhône river​ since […]

Matein Khalid ​I spent a wonderful afternoon with an​ old friend​, a Persian prince in his cousin’s Jumeirah villa to heal from the trauma of multiple Hindutva chick​en hawks keyboard warriors berating me for​ pointing out the fact that Dassault Aviation shares have fallen 3% in Paris while the Chinese J-10CE fighter jet (Vigorous Dragon) soared 20% in Shenzhen. Only a moron with a Stone Age IQ […]

Matein Khalid I  have not exactly been reticent in my conviction since last autumn that King Dollar was on the precipice of a seminal monetary regime shift that could mean 40% downside risk on its trade weighted index, as in 2001-06. Yet not in my wildest dreams did I anticipate that the New Taiwan dollar would surge 8% against the greenback, its best performance in 42 years, in […]

Matein Khalid He was a handsome young Gen-Z kid from Dubai, son of a Sindhi family long settled in the UAE, only a few years older than my twins. I can just imagine him as a toddler, all decked out in ​Babyshop diapers, then a little guy having his birthday bash with his classmates at McDonalds​ or Kidzania, as an IHS student on a school bus in […]

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Matein Khalid Sterling’s wild swings in Planet Forex literally shaped my path in life after high school. Magret Thatcher’s monetarist revolution and North Sea oil bonanza had taken cable to 2.40 while the Pakistan military’s judicial murder of Prime Minister Bhutto on April 4th​, 1979 meant that we were expelled from the Commonwealth. So I was easily able to persuade my parents that Matt should not follow […]

Matein Khalid My idea of nirvana Xanadu and Lotus Land is an eme​rging markets strategy bull session in the Waldorf cigar lounge with two bros who can dissect the best money making ideas in EM FX, EM sov debt and EM equities in the dozen odd countries where we see macro fairytales and masala shorts in sectors/countries on the precipice of emergi​ng nightmares from Brazil to Hong […]

Matein Khalid The last time the U.S. Dollar Index plummeted 9% in the first four months of a year was way back in 1973, when Richard Nixon sat in the White House on the eve of Watergate, the October War in the Sinai/Gulan, the Arab oil boycott and a savage 40% bear market in U.S. equities. Last week provided a respite from the tsunami of greenback selling […]

Matein Khalid Gold’s spectacular bull market since its mid-2022 bottom at 1600, amid the most brutal monetary tightening by the Fed since the Volcker era under JayPo (now branded as a “loco” and a “major loser” by President Trump) has climbed seminal macro walls of worry. A surge in the US Dollar Index to 110 in Jan’25 did not kill gold’s bull run nor did tough love […]

Matein Khalid Thank God my macro instinct flashed a “get out” SOS in late February and I dumped King Dollar for Bonnie King Charlie’s British pound before New Year late last year and thus averted fate worse than death/Matty miskeen. My macro guardian angel now whispers a few subliminal ideas. One, Chinese factories shed 20 million workers last week and hiring is down 30%. So the youth […]

Matein Khalid “We went eyeball to eyeball and the other guy blinked” – JFK said about Nikita Peasantovich Shoe Bangarov after Stalin’s henchman in the Red Terror back down in the Cuban missile crisis. Trump has gone eyeball to eyeball with the bond market and Xi Jinping but only the Dragon Empire’s Emperor for Life has blinked while the bond vigilantes have gone berserk in the netherworld […]

Matein Khalid As I sensed a few hours after the NYSE opened on Liberation Day, the masters of the universe on Wall Street and the White House have knowingly ignited the mother of all Lehman/Liz Truss moments in the global capital markets. Like Shakira’s hips, my Bloomberg screen does not lie as it speaks to me in its ominous green phosphorescent flicker. ​The Volatility Index is once […]

Matein Khalid We are now living “ten days that shook the world” in real life, as John Reed did that fateful autumn long ago in Lenin’s shadow as the Bolshies stormed the Winter Palace in October 1917 before he was resurrected to begin his next life as the chairman/CEO of Citicorp in 1984. Is this just a magic realism joke? No. The fall of Tsar Nicki and […]

Matein Khalid Tariffs are to economics what leeches are to medicine, what voodoo dolls are to risk management and what astrology is to astronomy. The very fact that Trump believed in this nonsense with rigid consistency for 40 years as a solution to the very real havoc meted out by Davos Man and the apostles of globalisation to Joe/Jane Sixpack in Middle America is both laughable and […]

Matein Khalid Thank God last night was just a manic Monday and not Black Monday, even though I saw doomsday options trade in the index futures market on Sunday night and the VIX was 60 at the open. This is 100% evidence that some major financial institution is in distress because 60 VIX is a 3-sigma event that I have seen only in 9/11, the GFC and […]

Matein Khalid In a financial panic, investors sell what they can and not what they must. So the most ominous data points for me is the dramatic widening in US corporate credit/high yield spreads, which means Mr. Market is now certain that default risk will strangle capital markets as varied as auto finance, subprime mortgages, student loan and credit card receivables. The widening of Asian sovereign credit […]

Matein Khalid The auguries for the CoreWeave (CRWV) IPO on Nasdaq are not too bright. Nvidia is down 10% in the last two trading sessions, the grapevine on the Street suggests that the pricing on CRWV will be below the $47-$55 range. While revenue growth has been spectacular since 2022, margins, accounting and loan repayments are a red flag. If this IPO flops, the ripple effect will […]

Matein Khalid It took Trump 2.0 to finally dethrone King Dollar. The US Dollar Index has fallen from 110 to 104 as Planet Forex has finally concluded that aggressive tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and the EU, coupled with stagflation risk in the US and Powell’s dovish take on a potential dual mandate pivot to easy money at a time when Germany ramps up defense spending by […]

Matein Khalid If ever any investor needed a real time lesson in emerging markets risk, the timebombs in Ankara, Jakarta and Bogotá to provided it. President Erdogan ordered the arrest of his top rival Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and triggered a 10% plunge in the lira against the US dollar, an exodus of offshore money from the local T-bill market and a horrific meltdown in Istanbul bank […]

Matein Khalid Risk assets went ballistic this week as DonnyT did his tariff man war dance, hurled his Tomahawk at Canada, Mexico, China and EU as Liberation Day begins on April 2nd in Year Zero of the Ten Thousand Year MAGA Empire. Long years ago, America made a tryst with destiny and now comes the time, we must redeem our pledge to The Donald, the Don of […]

Matein Khalid Starting in 2016, the US has morphed into the world’s largest LNG exporter, eclipsing Australia and Qatar. Trump is determined to achieve global energy dominance as he exploits the geopolitical leverage American LNG exports give him in his relations with Europe, Asia and the GCC. He has pledged to dramatically expand US natural gas production via his “drill baby drill” ethos, rescinded Biden’s environmental pause […]

Matein Khalid I have warned my friends that US recession risk was rising alarmingly in the past month as I saw the price of oil and money (2-year Treasury note yields) tank in unison while metrics of consumer/business confidence nosedived. Now Wall Street has accepted my thesis that the tariff trauma will lead to a deflation Big Chill and not an inflation spike in the US economy. […]

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