The most unsettled conditions are expected on November 11 and 12, with intermittent showers potentially becoming heavy in some locations. Northern and mountainous districts face the greatest likelihood of intense rainfall, while Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah could also receive rain of varying intensity.
The centre expects convective clouds to develop across scattered areas from Wednesday afternoon, bringing the possibility of thunderstorms. Western parts of the country are likely to experience the first significant cloud formations before the system moves towards coastal districts and major population centres.
Ras Al Khaimah and other northern areas are among the locations identified as particularly exposed to heavier showers. Al Dhafra, northern coastal districts and mountain areas could also receive substantial rainfall, although the distribution of showers will depend on how individual cloud formations develop.
Ahmed Habib, a meteorologist at the National Centre of Meteorology, said the system would strengthen from Wednesday afternoon as moisture arriving from the Arabian Sea interacts with low pressure extending towards the Emirates. He identified coastal areas, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai, as possible destinations for the developing rain clouds.
The meteorologist also highlighted the possibility of thunderstorm activity between Dubai and Al Ain, extending towards areas northeast of Al Ain. Rainfall in the principal cities is generally forecast to be light to moderate, although localised heavier bursts cannot be ruled out.
Strong winds are another concern during the two-day spell. The centre forecasts winds shifting towards the northwest and reaching 50 kilometres an hour at times on Wednesday and Thursday. Blowing dust and sand could reduce visibility, particularly in exposed districts and along roads outside built-up areas.
Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate sharply. The Arabian Gulf could become rough to very rough, while the Oman Sea is expected to experience moderate to rough conditions during the peak of the disturbance. Offshore activities and small vessels could be affected by stronger winds and higher waves.
Tuesday, November 10, marks the transition towards the wetter weather. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies are forecast, with showers possible over islands and some coastal, northern and western areas. Northwesterly winds could reach 45 kilometres an hour, producing blowing dust and rough to very rough seas in the Arabian Gulf.
Temperatures are expected to decline as cloud cover increases. Tuesday’s maximum readings are forecast at 30 to 34 degrees Celsius across coastal districts and islands, 32 to 36 degrees in inland areas and 22 to 27 degrees in mountainous locations.
The centre attributes the instability to an extension of a weak surface low-pressure system accompanied by an upper-air low-pressure system. Moist southwesterly airflow from the Arabian Sea and clouds moving towards the UAE from Saudi Arabia are contributing to the expected deterioration.
Habib said the interaction of these systems would encourage the formation of convective clouds, which can produce concentrated rain and thunder rather than uniform precipitation across the country. Consequently, rainfall totals could differ considerably between nearby districts even during the same period.
On Thursday, November 12, partly cloudy to cloudy weather is expected to continue, with showers at intervals and the possibility of heavy rainfall in isolated locations. Winds could again reach 50 kilometres an hour, and temperatures are forecast to register a further slight decrease.
Conditions should begin improving on Friday, November 13, when the forecast shifts towards generally fair to partly cloudy skies. Some cloud development may continue over eastern and northern areas, however, and northwesterly winds could still strengthen to 45 kilometres an hour.
The improvement over land will not necessarily produce calmer conditions offshore. The Arabian Gulf is forecast to remain rough to very rough on Friday, with seas in the Oman Sea ranging from moderate to rough.
Habib indicated that daytime temperatures could fall by approximately four to six degrees Celsius over the course of the changing weather. He described the cooling as gradual rather than abrupt, with changes unfolding over several days.
Saturday’s outlook suggests fair to partly cloudy skies, although winds could again reach 45 kilometres an hour at times. Marine conditions are forecast to remain unsettled, particularly in the Arabian Gulf, where rough to very rough seas could persist.
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