UAE Set for Steady 4 % Economic Growth Through 2028

The United Arab Emirates is on track to maintain an annual growth rate of approximately 4 % from 2025 through 2028, underpinned by robust expansion in non-oil sectors and rising oil output, according to S&P Global Ratings.

S&P’s Zahabia S Gupta, Director of the Sovereign team, emphasised that even with softened oil prices and global growth headwinds, the federation and individual emirates are projected to record consecutive fiscal surpluses. Boosted liquidity and investment returns are expected to raise the UAE’s net asset position to around 177 % of GDP by 2028.

Oil production quotas agreed by OPEC+ are forecast to remain elevated, enhancing the UAE’s hydrocarbon revenues, though the non-oil sectors—such as finance, real estate, tourism, and services—are seen as the main drivers. The Central Bank raised its 2024 GDP projection to 4 % and forecasts growth of 6 % for 2025. Sectoral diversification, including continued investment in infrastructure, logistics, and digital technologies, will support sustained activity levels across the seven emirates.

Emirates’ fiscal health, backed by solid sovereign reserves and rising yields on sovereign-backed assets, positions the government to generate surpluses even amid modest global economic slowdown. Gupta points out that income from liquid investments will be critical in reinforcing net asset accumulation. This resilient fiscal trajectory contrasts favourably with regional peers.

Sharjah, however, presents a more cautious outlook. S&P recently revised its forecast for the emirate’s economic performance, predicting roughly 3 % annual growth through 2028 alongside a widening deficit that is expected to reach 6.7 % of GDP in 2024. The difference underlines the UAE’s internal variance in expansion and structural robustness.

The UAE’s medium-term macroeconomic forecast aligns with IMF projections indicating real GDP growth of about 4.2 % in 2025 and a gradual uptick to 4.5 % by 2028. Non‑oil GDP growth is expected to consistently outpace the oil sector, significantly contributing to overall diversification efforts. Financing this will involve domestic debt issuance, estimated at around US $19 billion in 2024, nearly 55 % of which will be allocated to development projects.

Market observers note that the central bank’s policy rate adjustments, tied to the US Federal Reserve, may influence domestic lending conditions, but the policy outlook remains cautious given the dirham’s peg to the dollar. Financial sector resilience—evidenced by healthy bank liquidity and expanding lending—will support private sector credit growth.

The UAE’s strategic economic pivot includes deeper integration into global supply chains, expansion of tourism and hospitality capacity, and advanced digital infrastructure rollout. High-profile projects such as the Wynn Al Marjan Island integrated resort, which is set to open in Ras Al Khaimah in 2027, reflect the commitment to economic diversification.

Investors and analysts recognise that sustaining 4 % growth will require balancing oil revenue reliance with resilient non-hydrocarbon sectors. Fiscal discipline and effective public investment will remain crucial, particularly amid geopolitical tensions and potential global demand fluctuations. S&P’s projections anticipate that the UAE will continue recording fiscal surpluses, unlike other economies which may face tightening pressures.

The UAE’s economic trajectory contrasts sharply with that of Saudi Arabia, where growth is expected to accelerate to about 4 % over the same period—yet heavily influenced by oil production—underscoring the UAE’s relative strength in non‑oil diversification. The country’s strategic position as a regional financial and logistics hub reinforces its prospects against external shocks.

Challenges persist, including global inflationary pressures, energy price volatility, and regional geopolitical uncertainty. The government’s capacity to manage these risks, while preserving capital buffers and sustaining reform momentum, will be critical to achieve projected outcomes.