Ghana’s economy endured its most severe crisis in decades, driven by collapses in its cocoa and gold sectors. The government’s proactive restructuring of its debt burden laid the groundwork for this upgrade, with Fitch forecasting completion of external debt restructuring by the end of 2025. The “B‑” rating places Ghana closer to investment‑grade territory and signals increased investor confidence.
The stable outlook indicates that Fitch does not expect near‑term negative shocks to derail Ghana’s fiscal consolidation. It reflects continued fiscal discipline and political commitment to structural reform following President John Dramani Mahama’s inauguration in January.
Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has already implemented significant spending cuts, part of a broader strategy to restore macroeconomic stability and rebuild international credibility. These measures were reinforced by a similar move from S&P Global Ratings in May, which upgraded Ghana’s foreign currency issuer rating to “CCC+” from “selective default”. Together, these upgrades underscore growing confidence in Ghana’s recovery trajectory.
Fitch’s report highlights that servicing foreign currency debt—including domestic‑issued dollar bonds—is projected to consume around 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2025, rising modestly to 1.4 per cent by 2026. Domestic currency interest costs for the same period are estimated at approximately 3.8–3.9 per cent of GDP, with total debt servicing ratios stabilising after peaking at 48 per cent in 2021.
On the external front, Fitch projects Ghana’s current account surplus, which peaked at around 4.3 per cent of GDP in 2024, will moderate to about 1.1 per cent by 2026 due to increased import demand and softer export commodity prices. However, inflation, which stood at 23 per cent in 2024, is expected to subside to around 15 per cent by the close of 2025 and further to 10 per cent in 2026, aided by a strengthening cedi and disciplined monetary policy.
Fitch anticipates economic growth to remain robust at about 4 per cent in 2025, accelerating to approximately 4.5 per cent in 2026. This expansion will be driven by recovery in the agricultural sector—especially cocoa production—and continued momentum in the industrial and services sectors.
Despite the positive assessments, Fitch has emphasised key risks that could undermine its stable outlook. Chief among these are renewed liquidity pressures, potential loss of confidence in Ghana’s ability to refinance short‑ and medium‑term obligations, and strains on external reserves if the current account deficit widens unexpectedly.
Investor sentiment is likely to sharpen its focus on Ghana’s ability to fully deliver on its debt restructuring plan and preserve macroeconomic stability. As the country moves toward concluding bilateral and bondholder agreements by year‑end, the global market will be assessing not just the formal rating upgrade, but the implementation of structural reforms and fiscal prudence underpinning it.
This credit progression carries implications beyond bond markets. It enhances Ghana’s standing in international financial circles, potentially lowering its cost of future borrowing and attracting foreign direct investment. It also sets a precedent for other African nations navigating debt distress in the wake of global commodity and financial volatility.
