Less than a year is left for the commencement of the polling in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. After the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s positive talks on forging opposition unity with a large number of parties, including the Congress, focus has shifted to the next meeting of the anti-BJP parties expected to be held in June this year, after the announcement of the results for Karnataka assembly elections on May 13.
The entire spotlight is on the state assembly polls in Karnataka, as its outcome will impact the election strategy of each opposition party. If the Congress secures majority in the assembly on its own, it will be a big boost to the main BJP challenger’s bargaining power at the national level during the next opposition summit. A new political environment will be created, which will make the anti-BJP regional parties more amenable to the Congress’s role in the coming electoral battle against the BJP. However, in case the BJP is able to retain its power in Karnataka after the assembly polls, it will not just be a massive setback to the Congress’s striking power against the BJP, but also dampen the spirit of the party’s poll campaign in the remaining states, which will go for elections by end of this year. The immediate impact of the Karnataka elections will mostly be felt in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.
Now, let us focus on the prospects of opposition unity and what can be the most acceptable formula for an understanding between the anti-BJP parties united in removing Prime Minister Narendra Modi from power in the 2024 polls. Many commentators have suggested different approaches; the latest being the Congress leader P Chidambaram, who in his Sunday column in the Indian Express has outlined the ‘cardinal rule’ that all parties on Opposition Unity Platform (OUP) must willingly subscribe to — that while the lead party will contest a majority of the seats in the state concerned, the lead party will be obliged to give each seat to the candidate who has the best chance of securing a win.
This rule would not be implementable at the state-level, as every party is interested in protecting its respective base, and it will be difficult to work out which candidate has the best potential to win the concerned seat. About winning seats of the opposition against the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the parties might still agree, but besides that, there will be total chaos if Chidambaram’s formula is applied. The former finance minister has suggested his rule more from the Congress perspective, rather than the total opposition’s. The Congress has been given the lead party role in more states, including Kerala and Punjab, which is contrary to the political reality at the state level.
Let us look at some of the basic facts emanating from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress won in 52 seats and came second in 209 seats. So the Congress has the right to demand 261 seats out of the total 543 in Lok Sabha. However, the Congress lost 92 per cent of the 374 seats in which the party fought its main challenger BJP in a one-on-one contest. As against this, the regional parties did much better in their electoral battle against the BJP. The Congress’s failure mainly contributed to the BJP winning of 303 seats, the highest ever by the saffron party in any Lok Sabha elections.
I have analysed the 2019 Lok Sabha poll results and then updated my data on the basis of trends available from the assembly elections held in the last three years. My suggestion is as follows. First, there are states where the Congress is the lead party, like in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam, Mizoram, Manipur, Gujarat, etc. In these states, the Congress will have the right to decide if they will need allies. The thrust from the OUP should be to ensure that there is minimum division of anti-BJP votes in the constituencies concerned. But there is always the possibility of disagreement about the best chance of winning for any opposition candidate. So, if the talks fail, the lead party will decide, while taking into account that a few contests between the Congress and other opposition parties may take place in these states.
The same is true for West Bengal, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Kerala. Trinamool Congress will fight on its own in Bengal to defeat the BJP. The Congress and the Left Front can fight jointly both the BJP and the TMC. In UP, the Samajwadi Party is the biggest anti-BJP party. The Congress got only 2 percent vote last time and the party got only one seat, that of Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli, out of the total 80 seats. For UP, SP will have the lead role from the OUP. If SP gives a few seats on its own to the Congress, it can consider the option; otherwise, it will be an all-out SP show. It can choose other allies. UP is very crucial in terms of the number of seats, but the Congress cannot claim seats beyond its strength. Its state organisation is in a mess. Priyanka Gandhi is not visiting the state frequently as the secretary-in-charge keeping the state party in limbo.
As regards Punjab, neither AAP nor Congress will agree to any understanding, as BJP is no real threat in Punjab. AAP would like to win the maximum number of seats from Punjab and Delhi to make its presence felt in the new Lok Sabha. In Delhi, if the Congress can be persuaded to a 5-2 formula, five seats for AAP and two to the Congress, it might work. But taking into account the relationship between the two parties in Delhi, there is little possibility of a pre-poll tie-up.
Then there is Kerala. It is a clear case. The Congress and the Left Democratic Front will fight against each other like in earlier elections. BJP is no threat in the state. Whoever wins, belongs to the OUP. The LDF, especially the CPI(M) and the CPI, are determined to regain the ground they lost in 2019 elections. The Left wants to win maximum number seats from Kerala, as against the present tally of only one seat out of the total of 20 Lok Sabha seats from the southern bastion. In Kerala, Chidambaram’s formula does not apply.
Then there are four states —Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Jharkhand — where the opposition parties already have the state-specific functional alliance and they are in a position to work out their seat-sharing arrangement amicably. The parties belonging to MVA have to undertake the task of seat adjustment with pragmatism, and that can be possible under the sound leadership of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. Maharashtra, with 48 Lok Sabha seats, is crucial for 2024 polls. MVA has to mobilise all its efforts to maintain unity before the elections.
Mr. Chidambaram has divided the states under four categories: those with Congress party in the lead, those with another party of the opposition in the lead, those with BJP-friendly party in the lead, and those where it’s unclear who is the lead. The entire categorization is wrong. The third category of states with the so-called ‘BJP-friendly party’ in the lead consists of Andhra, Odisha, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Sikkim. Only Andhra and Odisha belong to one category, which can be termed the fence-sitting parties. Both AP and Odisha chief ministers have problems with the BJP, though they are not with the OUP. The two CMs may be unfriendly with the Congress, but they are accommodative to the views of the regional parties. Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee has already talked to the Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik. These two CMs will wait for the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha poll results and they have to win their seats by fighting both the Congress and the BJP. So the OUP platform has to be soft to both before 2024 polls despite the Congress problems. Chidambaram has judged these two parties solely from the Congress angle, but the OUP must take a broader view because their help might be needed if there is a hung Lok Sabha.
Now, about the five northeastern states, which Mr. Chidambaram has included in the third list of BJP-friendly parties in the lead. The categorization means closing the option to persuade them to support the opposition government, in case there is a hung Lok Sabha. The regional parties in the NE always tend to support the ruling party at the centre. These parties supported the Congress government, when the Congress was in power at the centre. These parties should not be pushed to the BJP fold. They need some cultivation so that in the post-poll situation, they can be of help.
In sum, at the next meeting of the opposition parties, which Mr. Chidambaram has termed as a sort of platform, there should be clear understanding about a few issues. These are: one, there is no need for naming some party as the leader of the OUP, or any leader as the prime ministerial candidate. Two, there should be total flexibility in electoral strategy which will vary from the state to state. Three, efforts should be made for arriving at maximum understanding on seat-sharing, not total unity under the banner of any one ‘leading party’. And, finally, the Opposition front will be given final shape only after the poll results are out in May 2024. Right now, all focus should be on defeating the BJP in the elections and bringing down its strength to less than 160 seats, which is possible by following the strategy I suggested and not through Mr. Chidambaram’s ‘cardinal rule’. (IPA Service)
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