By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Political equation in Western Uttar Pradesh is changing fast with several social groups changing their political loyalties. The 26 Lok Sabha Constituencies in the region are going to poll in the first three phases on April 19, 26, and May 7, 2024. BJP had won 18, BSP 4, and SP 4 seats in 2019, and these scores are set to drastically alter this time. BJP and BSP are facing tough challenges in retaining their number of seats, while INDIA alliance is set to gain.
Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur, and Pilibhit Lok Sabha Constituencies are going to poll on April 19; Amroha, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, and Mathura on April 26; and Sambhal, Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Manipur, Etah, Badaun, Bareilly, and Aonla would poll on May 7.
There is clear signal of changing political loyalties by Rajputs, Tyagis, Sainis, Dalits, OBCs and Muslims in the regions away from the parties they voted for in 2019. Hence, there is every chance of a surprising result from this region.
Rajputs have been taken for granted by the BJP that they would vote for them in all eventuality. However, if Rajupt Mahapanchayat held on April 7 at Saharanpur is of any indication, BJP can’t hope for even bagging majority of their votes this time. The community leaders have expressed their anger against the BJP and vowed to support those political parties who would care for the community’s interest. Since, there are about 10 per cent of Rajput voters in the region, their anger and their announcement matter.
Rajput leaders have said that BJP has totally ignored their interest and taking them for granted. Though Uttar Pradesh has presently the Chief Minister from their community, they say that only one among them have given ticket from the region by BJP, that is from Moradabad. Replacement of Rajput MP VK Singh from Ghaziabad with Atul Kumar Garg became immediate cause for their resentment.
A Rajput leader Thakur Puran Singh has publicly alleged that the BJP has been trying to push the Rajput community on the edge – Rajput’s glorious history is being distorted under their rule, denying equal rights in the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) category, and now refusing equal representation in the Lok Sabha election. Though Rajput leaders are being pressurized by the BJP to convince the community in favour of the BJP, the community in general have vowed to teach the BJP a lesson. … Rajputs are being duped on the pretext of being traditional BJP voters but not possible anymore.
Tyagi community is also angry with the BJP and its leaders have lately started voicing their anger. Akhil Bharatiya Bhumihar Mahasabha’s president Mane Ram Tyagi has also publicly criticized the BJP alleging that the party has been ignoring their community for the last several elections. “We have miniscule representation in the state assembly, Rajya Sabha, and now zero in Lok Sabha.
It should be noted that Tyagi community have been organizing their panchayats across the region, and everywhere, its leaders warn the BJP that they should not entertain the idea that Tyagis, being traditional voters of the BJP, would ultimately vote for the party.
Jats, Sainis, and Kashyaps are also voicing their anger against the BJP alleging that they are being ignored by the party. Ompal Saini, the president of the Akhil Bharatiya Saini Mahasabha, has said that Sainis have been traditional voters of BJP but the party has ignored them and they lack political representation. “The community is exploring other options also,” he said.
RLD had a considerable support base in the region, however, the party was not able to win any seat in 2019. RLD was part of SP-BSP alliance in 2019, but this time it has made alliance with BJP. Farmers in the regions are not happy with BJP. They have been demanding legal guarantee for MSP which Modi government is denying. Additionally, Sikh and other farmer communities are not happy with the BJP because their demand for action against a Union Minister whose son had killed some farmers by running his vehicle over them, was refused by Modi government.
It should be noted that Varun Gandhi had also demanded at the time of incident for compensation for killed farmers and action against Ajay Mishara Teni, the Union Minister. Now everybody known what happened ultimately – Varun Gandhi has been refused the BJP ticket from Pilibhit, a parliamentary seat he held until now, which is also in Western Uttar Pradesh. Ajay Mishra Teni has been given ticket from Kheri Lok Sabha, and Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) has condemned the BJP’s decision and campaigning against the BJP candidates for the party’s anti-farmers policies.
It is worth noting that BSP and SP had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election together, and both the parties had won 4 seats each from the region. Muslim community has been strategically voting in the state to whoever is able to defeat BJP candidate. Since BSP is contesting this time alone, Muslim and non-Jatav Dalit votes are likely to shift towards the SP-Congress alliance. BSP is therefore facing an uphill task in defending its 4 seats. Majority of Jatav votes are still intact with BSP, however, some tend to shift their loyalty towards SP-Congress because of bleak prospects of BSP candidates.
SP is depending on PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, and Alpsankhyak) slogan. Muslims, non-Jatav Dalits, and several OBC communities are gravitating towards the SP-Congress alliance. This is something distressing for the BJP, since the party had won 62 seats from Uttar Pradesh in 2019, out of which 18 were from Western Uttar Pradesh. Though, PM Narendra Modi and the entire RSS-BJP clan are campaigning on communal Hindutva line targeting SP-Congress and they have reminded even Sikh community of 1984 riots targeting Congress, they are still facing tough challenge from INDIA bloc in Western Uttar Pradesh. Election outcome in the region may surprise all. (IPA Service)
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